ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

14:11 JPY: Food prices continue to drive inflation – Commerzbank
Rice accounts for just 0.62% of the Japanese consumer price index, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Rice accounts for just 0.62% of the Japanese consumer price index, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Inflation in Japan stands at 3.5% in May"However, given that rice prices have risen by over 100% in the past 12 months, this has had a noticeable impact on overall inflation. Overall, inflation in Japan stood at 3.5% in May. Excluding rice, inflation would be below 3%. While inflation remains high, excluding food and energy shows that the inflation rate in May remained stable at 1.6%, within the Bank of Japan's target range." "However, the BoJ only excludes fresh food and energy to calculate its core rate. Because other food prices are also rising significantly, this rate remains at 3.3%, which is above the BoJ's target. In my opinion, the BoJ should not respond to high food prices, particularly the rise in rice prices, by raising interest rates." "The solution is much more obvious. While rice prices in Japan have more than doubled recently due to the poor 2023 harvest, export prices for Thai rice have fallen by over 36% in the past 12 months. Therefore, it would be much easier to lift the high import restrictions on rice to lower prices, rather than burdening the economy with higher interest rates."

14:04 GBP: Vote split endorses August BoE cut – ING
The Pound Sterling (GBP) was only lightly touched by a consensus Bank of England hold on Thursday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

The Pound Sterling (GBP) was only lightly touched by a consensus Bank of England hold on Thursday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes EUR/GBP to remain bullish in the coming months"The lack of new guidance has been the norm in the latest BoE meetings, and the vote split tends to be one of the very few metrics of hawkish-dovish tendencies. Yesterday's 6-3 vote split for a cut can be interpreted marginally on the dovish side and is allowing markets to reinforce their conviction call on an August cut.""We only expect two cuts this year two cuts this year, but markets may be tempted on the dovish side by soft UK data, and we remain generally bullish in EUR/GBP in our multi-month view."

14:03 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD is testing $3,340 support under growing bearish pressure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Friday as easing concerns of a regional war in the Middle East have undermined demand for safe havens.

14:01 China SMEI: Demand weakened in June – Standard Chartered
Headline SMEI eased further to a nine-month low of 50.1 in June as new orders shrank. Export-oriented SMEs’ performance sub-index fell below the 50 level, reflecting the tariff chill. Non-manufacturing SMEs’ performance stayed in contractionary territory for a third straight month.

Headline SMEI eased further to a nine-month low of 50.1 in June as new orders shrank. Export-oriented SMEs’ performance sub-index fell below the 50 level, reflecting the tariff chill. Non-manufacturing SMEs’ performance stayed in contractionary territory for a third straight month. SMEs reported a marginal improvement in access to bank credit, while financing costs rose, Standard Chartered's economists report. Tariff impact being felt "Our proprietary Small and Medium Enterprise Confidence Index (SMEI; Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) fell further by 0.1pts to 50.1 in June, the lowest reading since the stimulus package was announced in September 2024 (Figure 1). That said, changes in all the indicators were marginal. The overall performance sub-index dropped 0.2ppts to 50, indicating stalled activity. Only the sales and output price sub-indices stayed above 50, while the new orders sub-index slipped into contractionary territory again after Lunar New Year disruptions in February. That said, the expectations sub-index improved modestly to 50.2, mainly on a better sales and financing outlook.""Manufacturing activity slowed in June on stalled new orders and declining profitability, despite robust sales. We expect the official manufacturing PMI to edge down 0.2ppt to 49.3 in June. Non-manufacturing SMEs’ performance sub-index stayed below 50 for a third consecutive month on slack business activity in real estate, finance, retail sales and wholesale, and leasing and commercial services. Meanwhile, export-oriented SMEs’ performance sub-index fell below the 50 threshold, reflecting the impact of tariffs on sales and new orders.""The credit sub-indices stayed at 50 for a third month in June. While SMEs reported slightly easier access to bank credit versus May, financing costs rose modestly. Liquidity conditions remained stable. USD/CNY exchange rate appreciation expectations inched up, while expectations among most respondents remained stable."

13:58 USD: Support from geopolitical risk faltering – ING
The White House said yesterday it will decide whether to order direct strikes on Iran within two weeks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The White House said yesterday it will decide whether to order direct strikes on Iran within two weeks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Oil prices and the Middle East remain the main driver for FX markets"This slightly trims the perceived chances of both a rapid de-escalation and a rapid escalation in the Middle East conflict, leaving Brent prices supported but perhaps without enough thrust to test 80$/bll for now. It’s also been reported that Iran is attempting to fill up oil tanks quickly to export as much crude as possible, given the incumbent risks of logistical disruptions." "The FX market has taken the somewhat lower probability of the US intervening in Iran already this weekend as an opportunity to re-enter USD short positions, especially against European currencies. This confirms that a constant flow of oil-positive, risk-negative geopolitical news is needed to keep the dollar supported in an environment where markets retain a strong bias towards strategic USD shorts.""In macro news, today we’ll see the Philadelphia Fed survey and Conference Board Leading Index (from June and May, respectively), which are both expected to have improved modestly. The FOMC communication blackout period ended last night, but there are no speakers scheduled until Monday. Oil prices and the Middle East conflict remain the number one driver for FX markets. At this level, we think DXY may find some stabilisation barring major developments."

13:23 NZD/USD: Scope to test 0.6025 – UOB Group
Rebound in New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has scope to test 0.6025 against US Dollar (USD), but a sustained break above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, NZD must break and hold below 0.5940 before further declines are likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Rebound in New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has scope to test 0.6025 against US Dollar (USD), but a sustained break above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, NZD must break and hold below 0.5940 before further declines are likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Sustained break above 0.6025 is unlikely24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for NZD 'to trade in a sideways range of 0.6000/0.6045' yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading sideways, USD fell to a low of 0.5959 and then rebounded to close at 0.5992 (-0.64%). The rebound appears to have scope to test 0.6025, but based on the current momentum, a sustained break above this level is unlikely. The major resistance at 0.6055 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 0.5975; a breach of 0.5960 would mean that NZD is not rebounding further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Tuesday (17 Jun, spot at 0.6055), we noted 'an increase in upward momentum', but we pointed out that 'it is not sufficient to indicate the start of a sustained advance.' We indicated that NZD 'must first close above 0.6095 before a move to 0.6135 can be expected.' After NZD fell below our ‘strong support’ level of 0.6005, we indicated yesterday (19 Jun, spot at 0.6025) that NZD 'is expected to trade in a range between 0.5980 and 0.6080.' We did not expect NZD to drop below 0.5980, reaching a low of 0.5959. This time around, the increase in downward momentum is not enough to suggest a sustained drop. NZD must break and hold below 0.5940 before further declines are likely. The probability of NZD breaking clearly below 0.5940 does not seem high for now, but this risk remains intact provided that 0.6055 is not breached."

13:20 USD/CAD remains capped below 1.3700 with the loonie favoured by a brighter market mood
The Canadian Dollar is trading higher against a weaker USD on Monday, trimming losses following a three-day sell-off, as a brighter market mood, coupled with high Oil prices, presents a more favourable backdrop for the CAD.US President Donald Trump eased investors' fears earlier today, affirming tha

13:15 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to near $36 as Middle East conflict lingers
Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back half of its early losses and rebounds to near $36.10 during the European trading session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price recovers sharply to near $36.00 after attracting bids around the 20-day EMA.The White House clarified that the US has no plans to strike Iran immediately.The Fed warned of upside inflation risks under the Trump’s leadership.Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back half of its early losses and rebounds to near $36.10 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal attracted bids after revisiting the two-week low around $35.50 as tensions in the Middle East remain intact amid the aerial war between Israel and Iran.Heightened geopolitical tensions increase demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.Earlier in the day, the Silver price faced a sharp sell-off after comments from the White House signaled that the United States (US) will not involve in the Israel-Iran war immediately.The demand for safe-haven assets increased sharply on Thursday after a report from Bloomberg showed that senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran as soon as the weekend.Meanwhile, consistent warnings from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that new economic policies imposed by US President Donald Trump after returning the White House will be inflationary for the economy have also increased the safe-haven appeal of the Silver price.Silver performs better in a high-inflation environment, but a restrictive monetary policy stance by the Fed bodes poorly non-yielding assets.On Wednesday, the Fed warns of upside inflation risks after leaving interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. “We’ve had goods inflation moving up a bit and expect to see more of that in summer,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference following the interest rate decision.Silver technical analysisSilver price recovers sharply after attracting bids near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $35.50. The white metal has corrected after posting a fresh over-a-decade high around $37.30 on Wednesday.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.Looking down, the October 22 low around $34.87 will act as key support zone. On the upside, the June 18 high of $37.32 will act as key hurdle.Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

13:15 USD/CHF: SNB may not be done cutting rates – OCBC
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rate 25bp to bring policy rate down to 0%, as widely anticipated. USD/CHF was last at 0.8165 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rate 25bp to bring policy rate down to 0%, as widely anticipated. USD/CHF was last at 0.8165 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is flat"SNB indicated that the decision was driven by a decrease in inflation and inflationary pressures. This was in line with our view that Switzerland is also grappling with a well-entrenched disinflation trend, as core inflation has reached a near four-year low, and the headline CPI is now negative on a yearover-year basis. SNB also lowered conditional inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026 (vs. 0.4% and 0.8% earlier forecasts, respectively)." "Downward revision to inflation forecasts suggests that SNB may not be done cutting rates, but further policy decision may not be as forthcoming. SNB’s Schlegel did say that policymakers can’t exclude any measure including negative rates, but he also acknowledged that negative rates have challenges and big unwanted side effects. In our opinion, the room for further cut to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is not ruled out but it may take more for them to policymakers to do it." "For instance, a case of further downside surprise to inflation and/or another round of strong CHF may see policymakers revisit NIRP. USD/CHF eased, post-decision. Daily momentum is flat, while the rise in RSI moderated. Resistance at 0.8205 (21 DMA), 0.8240 levels (50 DMA). Support at 0.8120, 0.8040/50 levels (double bottom)."

13:09 US: Not quite 250 basis points – Commerzbank
Despite the wishes of a certain White House resident, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. However, it adjusted its economic projections quite significantly. These indicate expectations of a somewhat stagflationary environment.

Despite the wishes of a certain White House resident, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. However, it adjusted its economic projections quite significantly. These indicate expectations of a somewhat stagflationary environment. Growth expectations for this year were lowered from 1.7% to 1.4%, and a slightly higher unemployment rate is now expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. The current environment is not positive for USD"In contrast, however, the inflation forecast was not lowered, as one might have expected, but raised to 3.0% (from 2.7% in March). In addition, the median forecast of FOMC members is still that key interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points by the end of the year. However, this majority was only very narrow in June. While eight members still see two steps (nine in March), seven members now expect no adjustment at all. In March, only four members held this view.""This divided opinion could well reflect the pressure the Fed is currently under. On the one hand, recent data pointed to a slowdown in the US economy. Retail sales were weaker again in May than in the previous month, industrial production disappointed, and the labour market is also showing initial signs of slight weakness. On the other hand, however, political attacks from the White House and increasingly from other parts of the government are making it virtually impossible for the Fed to lower key interest rates as a preventive measure, as this would expose it to accusations of influence.""And independence is, quite rightly, a valuable asset for central banks. It could therefore be said that Donald Trump's verbal attacks are achieving exactly the opposite of what he actually wants. However, it could well be that he is simply laying the groundwork to blame Jerome Powell if the US economy runs into trouble as a result of his questionable foreign trade policy. Either way, this is not a positive environment for the US dollar."

12:56 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6460/0.6510 – UOB Group
Instead of continuing to decline, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6460/0.6510 against US Dollar (USD).

Instead of continuing to decline, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6460/0.6510 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further range trading still seems likely; a tighter 0.6430/0.6550 range should be sufficient to contain price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further range trading still seems likely24-HOUR VIEW: "The sharp drop in AUD to a low of 0.6446 was unexpected, as we had anticipated range-trading. That said, after rebounding sharply from the low, the immediate downward pressure appears to have subsided. In other words, instead of continuing to decline, AUD is more likely to trade sideways today, probably in a range of 0.6460/0.6510." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from one week ago (13 Jun, spot at 0.6495), in which 'the current price movements are likely the early stages of a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550.' While further range trading still seems likely, a tighter 0.6430/0.6550 range should be sufficient to contain price movements for now. Looking ahead, if AUD were to break below 0.6430, it could potentially trigger a deeper pullback."

12:53 DXY: Slight retracement – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) was a touch softer this morning alongside brent and gold. Dollar Index (DXY) gapped down today; last at 98.60 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) was a touch softer this morning alongside brent and gold. Dollar Index (DXY) gapped down today; last at 98.60 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Markets to stay sidelined into the weekend"High beta and net oil importer AxJ FX, including KRW, PHP and TWD led recovery. Risk sentiment improved slightly after White House said that Trump will decide within 2 weeks whether to strike Iran. This shows a slight step back from his recent rhetoric but to be fair, such comments offer little clarity with regards to the broader geopolitical uncertainty." "Mild bullish momentum intact while RSI eased. Support at 98, 97.60 levels (recent low). Resistance at 99.50 (50 DMA), 100.2 and 100.60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Geopolitical developments remain fluid, and risks are two-way." "Any downside or upside surprise over the weekend would have impact when markets open on Monday. As such, we anticipate markets to stay sidelined into the weekend."

12:49 GBP/USD: Can test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback – UOB Group
Rebound in Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback against US Dollar (USD) is likely; the strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat.

Rebound in Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback against US Dollar (USD) is likely; the strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, downward momentum is beginning to build; it may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected GBP to 'ease to 1.3375.' We pointed out that 'a dip below this level is not ruled out, but based on the current momentum, any further decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3335.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. After dipping to 1.3383, GBP rebounded strongly to close at 1.3470 (+0.36%). Although the rebound seems stretched, GBP could test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback is likely. The strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3420 (minor support is at 1.3445), it would indicate that GBP is not rebounding further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (19 Jun, spot at 1.3415) that 'downward momentum is beginning to build, but it may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view.' While we did not quite expect the robust rebound in GBP, only a break of 1.3520 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would mean the buildup in momentum has faded."

12:44 EUR: Back to 1.15 – ING
EUR/USD is back above 1.150 as markets priced out a certain degree of geopolitical risk off the pair, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD is back above 1.150 as markets priced out a certain degree of geopolitical risk off the pair, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Developments remain very marginal for EUR/USD"The situation in the Middle East remains too volatile to make a strong directional call on the pair, but the overarching risk of the US joining the conflict could keep it from aggressively retesting 1.160 in the next few days.""Eurozone developments remain very marginal for EUR/USD at this stage, with the macro calendar incidentally offering very little input. The EUR/USD two-year swap rate spread has incidentally been quite stable around 165-170bp since the European Central Bank meeting.""Elsewhere in Europe, markets were taken completely by surprise by Norges Bank’s 25bp rate cut yesterday. We argued last week that the conditions for a cut were ideal, and that holding again was a risky move. However, we had doubts that the central bank would completely wrongfoot market expectations and consensus. We now expect two more cuts by Norges Bank, which does not necessarily prevent further EUR/NOK gradual depreciation."

12:38 USD/JPY Price Forecast: The pair remains bullish with 146.15 on sight
The US Dollar keeps trading in a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows against a weaker Yen and is on track to close the week 0.8% higher, despite the strong Japanese inflation figures seen earlier today.

12:35 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1470 and 1.1540 – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.1470 and 1.1540. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD) for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.1470 and 1.1540. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD) for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "When EUR was at 1.1475 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that 'there has been a slight increase in downward momentum.' We indicated that EUR 'could edge lower and potentially test the 1.1440 level.' While EUR subsequently dipped, it only reached a low of 1.1445 before rebounding to close at 1.1494 (+0.13%). The mild downward pressure has faded, and the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.1470 and 1.1540." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (19 Jun, spot at 1.1475). As highlighted, EUR is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 93.19 on Friday, up from 92.71 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

12:23 US Dollar Index retraces to near 98.60 as Trump reassesses decision to strike Iran
The US Dollar (USD) retraces from its weekly high as comments from the White House that it will decide on its plans of striking Iran in the next two weeks have provided interim relief to investors.

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The Housing Starts data showed on Wednesday showed that new single-family houses constructed in May were 1.256 million on month, significantly lower than expectations of 1.360 million and the prior release of 1.392 million.Weak housing demand from individuals has dented the sentiment of homebuilders, forcing them to cut prices to attract buyers, Reuters reported. This week, the National Association of Home Builders showed that the Housing Market Index fell to 32 in June. This is the lowest reading seen since December 2022. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

11:34 WTI Oil remains steady near $74.00 as risks of supply disruptions looming
Crude Oil prices keep trading near their highest levels since January, with the barrel of WTI trading at the $74.00 area at the moment of writing.

11:00 Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €-2.112B in April from previous €-2.998B
Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €-2.112B in April from previous €-2.998B

10:54 EUR/JPY fails to breach resistance at 167.60 but remains near multi-month highs
The Euro is appreciating against the Japanese Yen for the second consecutive day on Friday, favoured by a moderately brighter market sentiment.

10:53 Pound Sterling faces selling pressure after poor UK Retail Sales data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against its major peers on Friday after the release of the weaker-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for May.

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declined by 2.7% on month. Economists expected the consumer spending measure to have contracted at a moderate pace of 0.5% after expanding by 1.3% in April, upwardly revised from 1.2%.Year-on-year Retail Sales unexpectedly declined by 1.3%, while they were anticipated to have grown by 1.7%. A significant slump in sales receipts at Department stores, and Textile Clothing & Footwear stores led to a sharp decline in the figuresWeak UK Retail Sales data often encourages traders to raise bets supporting more interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). Traders expect the BoE to cut its key borrowing rates two times in the remainder of the year after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday, in which the central bank kept them steady at 4.25%, as the consensus showed, with a 6-3 vote majority.Three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members argued in favor of lowering interest rates again, citing that "a material loosening in labour market conditions" makes the case for further monetary policy easing.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey retained the “gradual and careful” monetary easing guidance, stating that interest rates remain on a “gradual downward path”. He warned that softening labor market conditions and rising energy prices amid escalating Middle East tensions are key risks to the economy.Going forward, the next trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the UK preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June, which will be released on Monday.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling against US DollarThe Pound Sterling faces selling pressure after failing to break above the psychological level of 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and weak UK Retail Sales data for May. The GBP/USD pair struggles to extend its Thursday's recovery move and trades around 1.3470 at the time of writing.The US Dollar also trades lower, corrects sharply after comments from the White House indicating that the US has no intention to strike Iran in the coming days, which lifted the risk appetite of investors.No immediate attacking plans from Washington have also diminished the demand for safe-haven assets, sending the US Dollar Index (DXY) lower to near 98.60 from the weekly high of 99.15 posted on Thursday.“Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance that negotiations may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go, within the next two weeks,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, ANI News reported.Financial market participants were anticipating that the US could join the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and accelerate airstrikes on Iran, aiming to prevent Tehran from building nuclear warheads. Fears of the US attacking Iran directly stemmed after a report from Bloomberg on Wednesday indicated that senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days. The news increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar.On Wednesday, fresh projections from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that it will cut interest rates fewer times in 2026 and 2027 than anticipated in March also supported the US Dollar. According to the Fed’s dot plot, policymakers collectively revised the interest rate target for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively. In the policy meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth straight meeting and warned of upside risks to inflation.For fresh cues on the inflation outlook, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for June, which is scheduled to be released on Monday. The PMI report will show the change in prices paid by business owners for inputs and selling prices amid the imposition of the tariff policy by US President Donald Trump.Technical Analysis: Indecisiveness ahead of the weekly closeThe Pound Sterling faces barricades around the psychological level of 1.3500 against the US Dollar, which coincides with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the near-term trend is uncertain.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops to near 50.00, indicating a sideways performance in the near term.Looking down, the May 16 low around 1.3250 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the three-year high around 1.3630 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:41 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $35.50 as traders lock in profits
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the third consecutive session, trading around $35.80 during the early European hours on Friday. The price of the precious metal depreciates as traders take profits and liquidate positions to offset losses in other assets.

10:39 EUR/USD nudges higher as the US Dollar pulls back with risk aversion easing
The EUR/USD pair is trading higher for the third consecutive day on Friday and has returned above the 1.1500 level, trading at 1.1520 at the moment of writing.

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An ebbing risk aversion is providing some support to the Euro as safe-haven demand eases.EUR/USD remains on a bearish correction from 1.1630 highs.The EUR/USD pair is trading higher for the third consecutive day on Friday and has returned above the 1.1500 level, trading at 1.1520 at the moment of writing. US President Donald Trump's comments saying that he needs two weeks to decide on entering the Middle East conflict have eased investors' fears of an imminent attack and provided some support to the Euro.The pair, however, remains on track to a moderate weekly loss, as investors' concerns that the war between Iran and Israel might turn into a wider regional conflict have kept risk appetite subdued, boosting demand for the US Dollar and other traditional safe havens.Beyond that, the sharp increase in Oil prices poses another challenge for a soft Eurozone Economy while the trade relationship with the US remains highly uncertain. The negotiations between the US and European authorities remain stalled just two weeks before Trump's July 9 deadline to cut a deal or face high tariffs.Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged and maintained its projection of two cuts in 2025, but Chairman Jerome Powell struck a hawkish note, downplaying the dot plot and warning about higher inflationary pressures stemming from Trump's tariffs. Powell's press release turned the decision into a "hawkish hold," which gave additional support to the US Dollar. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.17% 0.03% -0.09% -0.04% -0.08% -0.02% -0.10% EUR 0.17% 0.17% 0.08% 0.13% 0.25% 0.16% 0.09% GBP -0.03% -0.17% 0.00% -0.03% 0.08% -0.02% -0.09% JPY 0.09% -0.08% 0.00% 0.09% -0.02% -0.09% -0.07% CAD 0.04% -0.13% 0.03% -0.09% -0.01% -0.21% -0.07% AUD 0.08% -0.25% -0.08% 0.02% 0.00% 0.18% -0.17% NZD 0.02% -0.16% 0.02% 0.09% 0.21% -0.18% -0.07% CHF 0.10% -0.09% 0.09% 0.07% 0.07% 0.17% 0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The Euro extends its recovery as risk aversion easesMarket sentiment improved somewhat on Friday after Trump eased fears of an imminent attack on Iran, and news reports suggest that US and Iranian officials are keeping diverse lines of direct and indirect negotiations. There is also news that Iranian diplomats will meet Eurozone officials to hold nuclear talks on Friday, which opens a possibility of a peace agreement. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict enters its eighth day with Tehran and Tel Aviv exchanging missiles and threats. Israel attacked several military and nuclear targets overnight in an attempt to cripple the Islamic Republic's aim to obtain a nuclear weapon and topple its Government.Risk aversion eases somewhat as Trump calmed fears of US involvement in the war, but market sentiment remains frail. Oil prices have escalated to $73, about 12% above May's range, which adds a new layer of uncertainty to a global economy already threatened by higher tariffs from the US that will severely restrict international trade.The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold at the 4.25%-4.50% range as expected, as well as the projections of two interest rate cuts by year end, but the economic growth expectations for 2025 were downgraded to 1.4% from the previous 1.7%, and inflation expectations hiked to 3% from the previous 2.7%. A context of softer growth and higher inflation poses a dilemma for the central bank.On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde pitched for greater regional trade between the European Union and neighboring economies to offset losses from global fragmentation during an event in Kyiv.The macroeconomic calendar is thin on Friday. In the US, the highlight will be the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, which is expected to show some minor improvement, yet with the index remaining in negative territory for the third consecutive month. Somewhat later, the preliminary Consumer Confidence Index released by the European Commission is expected to have improved to -14.5 in June from -15.2 in the previous month, still at levels consistent with a soft economic growth.
EUR/USD remains on a bearish correction from 1.1630 EUR/USD is trading within a descending channel since peaking at 1.1630 on June 12. The pair has pared some losses over the last three days, but it remains on track for a moderate weekly loss. From a technical perspective, the bearish correction from last week's highs remains in play.

Upside attempts are being capped around the June 18 high at 1.530 on Friday. The pair should confirm above that level and breach the top of the descending channel, now at 1.1570, to break the immediate bearish structure and shift the focus back to the mentioned 1.1630 high.

On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1445 (June 19 low) and the descending channel trendline support, at 1.1440. A bearish reaction below that level would increase pressure towards 1.1370, the June 6 and 10 lows, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the May 29 low of 1.1210 to the June 12 high of 1.1630. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:37 USD/CHF consolidates above mid-0.8100s; remains close to weekly high set on Thursday
The USD/CHF pair lacks a firm intraday directional bias on Friday and oscillates in a narrow band, just above mid-0.8100s through the first half of the European session.

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Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled Thursday's retracement slide from levels just above the 0.8200 mark, or over a one-week high. The Swiss Franc (CHF) draws some support from the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) hawkish outlook, signaling that it does not plan additional interest rate cuts. The announcement disappointed some investors expecting that rates might return to negative territory this year, which, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, benefits the safe-haven CHF and acts as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains on the defensive, though it remains on track to register weekly gains on the back of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week. In fact, the Fed retained the forecast for two rate cuts in 2025 but trimmed the outlook for rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. This acts as a tailwind for the buck and in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Fed Monetary Policy Report, which might influence the USD price dynamics. Furthermore, developments surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict will drive the broader market risk sentiment and the safe-haven CHF. This should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

10:22 Bailey speech: Ukraine's goal for price stabilty 'credible and critical'
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday, "you (Ukraine's central bank) have been very clear in public that after the security risks abate and appropriate macroeconomic conditions are established in place, you will return to conventional inflation targeting.”

10:18 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously around 0.6000
The NZD/USD pair trades in a limited range near the psychological level of 0.6000 during European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair consolidates as investors seek clarity on the next action by the United States (US) on Iran.

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New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

10:04 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as geopolitics remain under spotlight
Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 20:

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In the second half of the day, May Retail Sales from Canada and preliminary June Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone will be featured in the economic calendar. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.22% 0.73% 0.58% 0.89% 0.13% 0.41% 0.52% EUR -0.22% 0.39% 0.35% 0.68% 0.03% 0.20% 0.31% GBP -0.73% -0.39% -0.02% 0.28% -0.36% -0.19% -0.09% JPY -0.58% -0.35% 0.02% 0.31% -0.74% -0.52% -0.46% CAD -0.89% -0.68% -0.28% -0.31% -0.68% -0.47% -0.37% AUD -0.13% -0.03% 0.36% 0.74% 0.68% 0.17% 0.27% NZD -0.41% -0.20% 0.19% 0.52% 0.47% -0.17% 0.10% CHF -0.52% -0.31% 0.09% 0.46% 0.37% -0.27% -0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance on policy-easing and the risk-averse market atmosphere helped the USD outperform its rivals early Thursday. After reaching its highest level in a week above 99.00, however, the USD Index lost its traction and was last seen fluctuating at around 98.60.Markets turned risk-averse on Thursday on reports hinting at a direct involvement of the United States (US) in the Iran-Israel conflict. Later in the day, US Senate Intelligence Committee Chair noted that US President Donald Trump said that he will give Iran the last chance to make a deal to end its nuclear program. Trump reportedly decided that he would delay his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks. Although Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes, this development seems to be helping markets breathe a sigh of relief. During the Asian trading hours, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced that it left the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.The data from Japan showed early Friday that the National Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5% on a yearly basis in May, following the 3.6% increase recorded in April. Meanwhile, commenting on trade talks with the US, Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that Japan will not fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels. "We're looking for the possibility of a deal in ministerial-level negotiations but the outlook remains in a fog," Akazawa added. After closing in positive territory on Thursday, USD/JPY fluctuates in a tight channel slightly below 145.50 on Friday.The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Friday that Retail Sales declined by 2.7% on a monthly basis in May, compared to the market expectation of -0.5%. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. After posting small gains on Thursday, GBP/USD struggles to gather bullish momentum and trades below 1.3500 early Friday.Following Thursday's indecisive action, Gold stays under bearish pressure in the European morning on Friday and trades at its lowest level in a week below $3,350. EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1500 in the early European session on Friday after rebounding from the weekly low it set below 1.1450 on Thursday. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:00 Turkey Consumer Confidence increased to 85.1 in June from previous 84.8
Turkey Consumer Confidence increased to 85.1 in June from previous 84.8

09:54 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains capped below 100-day EMA, bearish bias prevails near 1.3700
The USD/CAD pair holds steady near 1.3700 during the early European trading hours on Friday. However, fears of US involvement in Middle East conflict could spark demand for the US Dollar (USD), a safe-haven currency.

09:49 GBP/JPY falls below 196.00, trims recent gains following poor UK Retail Sales data
GBP/JPY holds ground for the second successive day, trading around 195.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross has trimmed its daily gains after the weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data released from the United Kingdom (UK).

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The currency cross has trimmed its daily gains after the weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data released from the United Kingdom (UK).The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK Retail Sales fell 2.7% month-over-month in May, reversing April’s increase of 1.3% (revised from 1.2%). Markets expected a 0.5% drop in the reported month. Meanwhile, the monthly core Retail Sales, excluding the auto motor fuel sales, declined 2.8%, worse than the estimated decrease of 0.5%. The annual Retail Sales dropped by 1.3% in May, against April’s 5% growth, while the core Retail Sales also decreased by 1.3% against a 5.2% previous revision.The GBP/JPY cross appreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces downward pressure from reports suggesting a de-escalation of the US aggression on Iran. The absence of negative developments in the Iran-Israel conflict front so far this Friday, boosting market sentiment and reviving risk appetite.US President Donald Trump reportedly said that he will offer Iran a last chance to negotiate the end of its nuclear program. Trump noted on Thursday that he would delay his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks.On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) announced to leave interest rates steady at 4.25%. Traders expected the BoE to keep rates unchanged, with a 7-2 majority in favor. However, three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members: Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor have supported an interest rate cut.Additionally, the Japanese Yen faces challenges due to ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier this week that the central bank's near-term attention was on downside risks to Japan's economy, with the impact of US tariffs expected to worsen in the second half of this year. This remark suggests that the Japanese central bank was in no hurry to begin rate hikes. Economic Indicator Retail Price Index (MoM) Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed Jun 18, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.2% Consensus: - Previous: 1.7% Source: Office for National Statistics

09:45 BoJ's Ueda: Japan's economy is recovering moderately
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the Japanese economy recovering moderately albeit with some weaknesses.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (97) in June: Actual (96)
France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (97) in June: Actual (96)

09:42 FX option expiries for Jun 20 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1300 999m1.1350 974m1.1400 2.1b1.1450 1b1.1500 3.2b1.1520 1b1.1600 1.2b1.1625 950mGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3360 490mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.00 1.5b143.15 1.2b146.00 2.7b147.00 868mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6370 705m0.6600 808mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3600 665m1.3700 843mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8500 641m0.8550 552m0.8565 602m

09:10 EUR/GBP gains traction to near 0.8550 on downbeat UK Retail Sales data
The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8545 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the weaker-than-expected UK economic data.

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The UK Retail Sales declined 2.7% MoM in May, weaker than expected. ECB’s Villeroy said the central bank should watch Oil price in setting rates. The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8545 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the weaker-than-expected UK economic data. Later on Friday, the Economic Bulletin and preliminary reading of Consumer Confidence from the Eurozone will be published. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday that the UK Retail Sales fell 2.7% MoM in May versus a rise of 1.3% prior (revised from 1.2%). This figure came in below the market consensus of a decline of 0.5%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales declined 1.3% in May compared to a rise of 5.0% prior, worse than the estimation of an increase of 1.7%. The GBP attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the downbeat UK Retail Sales data. The Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep rates at 4.25% at its June policy meeting on Thursday, as widely expected. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that interest rates remain on a gradual downward path, but warned "the world is highly unpredictable.” The central bank emphasized the concerns over the conflict between Israel and Iran, which could send overall prices up and would impact further rate decisions. Economists polled by Reuters anticipate BOE policymakers to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the next meeting in August, and to reduce another 25 bps in the fourth quarter.On the Euro front, the hawkish tone surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook has lifted the shared currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that rate reductions are coming to an end as the central bank is now “in a good position” to deal with prevailing uncertainties. Meanwhile, the ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said earlier this week that the central bank needs to assess fluctuations in oil prices and the euro as it sets borrowing costs. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:03 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $72.92 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $75.06.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $75.06 after its previous daily close at $77.32.

09:01 UK Retail Sales decline 2.7% MoM in May vs. -0.5% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales declined 2.7% month-over-month (MoM) in May after climbing 1.3% in April (revised from 1.2%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday.

09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -2.8%, below expectations (-0.5%) in May
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -2.8%, below expectations (-0.5%) in May

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing dipped from previous £20.155B to £17.686B in May
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing dipped from previous £20.155B to £17.686B in May

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (-1.2%) in May
Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (-1.2%) in May

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in May
Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in May

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (-0.5%) in May: Actual (-2.7%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (-0.5%) in May: Actual (-2.7%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in May: Actual (-1.3%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in May: Actual (-1.3%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (1.8%) in May
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (1.8%) in May

08:29 AUD/JPY climbs to 94.35-94.40 resistance zone; upside potential seems limited
The AUD/JPY cross is building on the overnight bounce from the 93.80 area and gaining some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY regains some positive traction following the previous day’s modest decline.A weaker USD benefits the AUD, while reduced BoJ rate cut bets weigh on the JPY.The divergent BoJ-RBA policy expectations warrant some caution for bullish traders. The AUD/JPY cross is building on the overnight bounce from the 93.80 area and gaining some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a multi-day-old range amid mixed fundamental cues and currently trade around the 94.35-94.40 horizontal resistance, up less than 0.10% for the day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD) and draws additional support after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) decided to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers despite hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and serves as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross.Data released earlier today showed that Japan's annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained well above the BoJ's 2% target in May. This reaffirms market bets that the central bank will hike interest rates again. Apart from this, persistent trade-related uncertainties, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, lend some support to the safe-haven JPY. In contrast, Thursday's disappointing Australian employment details pointed to signs of weakness in the labour market and backed the case for the next interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in July. This could hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the AUD and keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the AUD/JPY cross. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

08:26 EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.5750 due to persistent bullish bias
EUR/CAD extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.5780 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a strengthening bullish bias as the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

08:11 EUR/JPY extends upside to near 167.50 despite strong Japanese CPI inflation data
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 167.50 during the early European session on Friday. The uncertainty over the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY).

08:05 WTI Price Forecast: Sees more upside above $76
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, recovers its early losses and ticks up to near $73.70 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The Oil price opened on a weak note as comments from the White House signaled that they have no intentions to strike Iran immediately.

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,341.84 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,388.94 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 108,961.30 per tola from INR 109,510.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,341.84 10 Grams 93,418.36 Tola 108,961.30 Troy Ounce 290,563.80 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is weighed down by reduced bets for more aggressive Fed rate cuts The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday amid concern that US President Donald Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices. In the so-called dot plot, the committee projected two rate cuts by the end of 2025. However, Fed officials forecasted only one 25-basis points rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027 amid the risk that inflation could stay persistently higher. The global risk sentiment remains fragile on the back of persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In fact, Trump said earlier this week that tariffs on the pharma sector are coming soon. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets ahead of the July 9 deadline for sweeping “liberation day” tariffs and keeps investors on edge, which could benefit the safe-haven Gold price. On the geopolitical front, the aerial war between Iran and Israel continues for the eighth day amid speculations over a possible US involvement. According to the US Senate Intelligence Committee Chair, Trump said that he would give Iran the last chance to make a deal to end its nuclear program and delay his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks. This raises the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East. The US Dollar is seen retreating further from over a one-week high touched on Thursday, in the aftermath of the Fed's hawkish pause, which, in turn, could support the commodity. Moreover, the supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside and backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels heading into the weekend. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:31 USD/INR snaps three-day winning spree as US avoids immediate strike on Iran
The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps a three-day winning streak and opens on a positive note to near 86.60 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.

The Indian Rupee bounces back to near 86.60 against the US Dollar as the Oil price rally hits a pause.The US stated that it will decide whether to attack Iran directly in the next two weeks.This week, the Fed left interest rates steady and warned of upside inflation risks.The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps a three-day winning streak and opens on a positive note to near 86.60 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair corrects after posting a fresh two-month high around 86.93 on Thursday as the Indian Rupee gains, while the Oil price struggles to extend its upside after rallying for almost three weeks.Currencies associated with nations having higher dependency on the import of Oil, such as India, become vulnerable to sharp upside movements in the Oil price.The Oil price struggles to rise further after comments from the White House signaled that the United States (USD) will not be involved in the Middle East conflict immediately, keeping hopes of negotiations alive. This has also diminished demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 98.60 during European trading hours on Friday from the weekly high of 99.15 posted the previous day.However, investors should be cautious about going all-in on the Indian Rupee as its outlook remains uncertain, given that the conflict between Israel and Iran is intact. Such a scenario will continue supporting the Oil price and will keep the scope for more upside wide open.Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers this month despite pouring an investment of Rs. 3.308.32 crores in India’s equity market, according to data from exchanges. The scenario of FII outflows bodes poorly for emerging markets, such as India.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee rebounds against US DollarThe Indian Rupee opens on a bullish note against the US Dollar on Friday as the latter faces selling pressure amid an erosion in its safe-haven demand.The White House signaled on Thursday that Washington will not strike Iran immediately and will decide on that in next two weeks. “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance that negotiations may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go, within the next two weeks,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, ANI News reported.Market sentiment soured significantly on early Thursday after a report from Bloomberg showed that the US is considering striking Iran as early as this weekend.Meanwhile, Tehran has warned that the US joining the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) would cause "hell for the whole region", Iran's deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said, BBC reported. Khatibzadeh added that the US involvement would turn the “conflict into a quagmire".On the domestic front, investors seek cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates after leaving them in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the July meeting and will reduce them in September.Following the interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have accelerated goods inflation, and it will pick up again this summer. “We’ve had goods inflation moving up a bit and expect to see more of that in summer,” Powell said.Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary HSBC India and S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June, which will be released on Monday.Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee stays below 20-day EMAThe Indian Rupee struggles to hold its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar on Friday. The USD/INR pair faces selling pressure after failing to reclaim the key resistance of $87.00 on Thursday. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 86.03.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00, suggesting that a fresh bullish momentum has been triggered.Looking down, the 20-day EMA is a key support level for the major. On the upside, the April 11 high of 87.14 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj up to -36 in June from previous -37
Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj up to -36 in June from previous -37

07:28 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dives to over one-week low, further below $36.00
Silver (XA/USD) is seen prolonging its retracement slide from the highest level since February 2012 touched earlier this week and losing ground for the third consecutive day on Friday.

07:13 USD/CHF softens below 1.3700 amid escalating fears over Israel-Iran conflict
The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 1.3690, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Fears of US involvement in Middle East conflict spark demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency.

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Escalating tensions in the Middle East support the Swiss Franc. The SNB cuts interest rates to zero at its June meeting on Thursday. The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 1.3690, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Fears of US involvement in Middle East conflict spark demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be published later on Friday.The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its seventh day. The White House said US President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks about whether to join Israel in the war. Uncertainties about a raging war in the Middle East and the fear that direct US involvement would widen the conflict boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc and creating a headwind for the pair. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.25% to zero at its June meeting and did not rule out returning borrowing costs to negative territory in the future. The CHF has strengthened against the US dollar after the rate decision. "Unless the situation changes drastically between now and September... today's decision paves the way for a further rate cut in September and a return to negative interest rates," said Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING Bank.On the other hand, the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could underpin the Greenback. The US central bank left its key borrowing rate unchanged on Wednesday and retained projections for two quarter-point rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious note about further easing ahead, saying that he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead as a result of Trump's aggressive trade tariffs. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:12 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests 1.3500, nine-day EMA barrier ahead of UK Retail Sales data
The GBP/USD pair continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.3500 during the Asian hours on Friday. The bullish bias persists as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern.

07:06 Japan’s Akazawa: We won’t fixate on July 9 in US trade talks
Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that Japan will not fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels, per Bloomberg.

06:55 Gold price drops to over one-week low as Fed’s hawkish stance offsets Middle East tensions
Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and touches over a one-week low, near the $3,345-3,344 area in the last hour.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price comes under renewed selling pressure despite a combination of supporting factors. A weaker risk tone and some follow-through USD selling do little to support the XAU/USD pair. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses.Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and touches over a one-week low, near the $3,345-3,344 area in the last hour. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, indicating that inflation risk remains high and signaling a slower pace of cuts in the future, is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal. However, a weaker risk tone could offer support to the safe-haven commodity and help limit deeper losses.Against the backdrop of the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, a further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to weigh on investors' sentiment. The anti-risk flow is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which, along with a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD), could act as a tailwind for the Gold price. This, in turn, warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is weighed down by reduced bets for more aggressive Fed rate cutsThe US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday amid concern that US President Donald Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices. In the so-called dot plot, the committee projected two rate cuts by the end of 2025. However, Fed officials forecasted only one 25-basis points rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027 amid the risk that inflation could stay persistently higher.The global risk sentiment remains fragile on the back of persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In fact, Trump said earlier this week that tariffs on the pharma sector are coming soon. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets ahead of the July 9 deadline for sweeping “liberation day” tariffs and keeps investors on edge, which could benefit the safe-haven Gold price. On the geopolitical front, the aerial war between Iran and Israel continues for the eighth day amid speculations over a possible US involvement. According to the US Senate Intelligence Committee Chair, Trump said that he would give Iran the last chance to make a deal to end its nuclear program and delay his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks. This raises the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East. The US Dollar is seen retreating further from over a one-week high touched on Thursday, in the aftermath of the Fed's hawkish pause, which, in turn, could support the commodity. Moreover, the supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside and backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels heading into the weekend. Gold price could accelerate the downfall once the ascending trend-channel support is broken decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the intraday slide drags the Gold price below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), to a pivotal support marked by the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have been losing traction and gaining negative momentum on hourly charts, some follow-through selling should pave the way for an extension of this week's retracement slide from a nearly two-month high. The XAU/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the $3,323-3,322 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $3,300 round figure.On the flip side, the $3,374-3,375 horizontal zone might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,400 mark. A sustained move beyond the latter could lift the Gold price to the $3,434-3,435 region en route to the $3,451-3,452 area, or a nearly two-month top touched on Monday. Some follow-through buying would then allow bulls to aim towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark, which nears the ascending channel barrier. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

06:34 EUR/USD rises above 1.1500 as US Dollar declines, possibly due to a technical pullback
EUR/USD continues its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground, possibly driven by a technical pullback.

05:52 US Dollar Index edges lower to near 98.50, awaits Fed's Monetary Policy Report
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading lower at around 98.70 at the time of writing.

05:17 Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on domestic inflation data-inspired uptick
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the monthly low touched the previous day.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers as strong domestic CPI reaffirms BoJ rate hike bets.Trade uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions also benefit the JPY’s safe-haven status.A weaker USD contributes to the USD/JPY pair’s retracement slide from the monthly high.The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the monthly low touched the previous day. Government data released from Japan showed that the annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained well above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) target of 2% in May. This reaffirms market bets that the BoJ will hike interest rates again and turns out to be a key factor that provides a modest lift to the JPY. Meanwhile, persistent trade-related uncertainties and a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on investors' sentiment, which further underpins the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, a modest fall in US Dollar (USD) drags the USD/JPY pair back closer to the 145.00 psychological mark. However, expectations that the BoJ could stay on hold until Q1 2026 and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this week could limit losses for the pair. Japanese Yen draws support from stronger domestic consumer inflation figures, safe-haven buyingThe Japan Statistics Bureau reported this Friday that the headline National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% YoY in May, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%. Meanwhile, the National core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, picked up from the 3.5% YoY rate in April and grew 3.7% last month – marking the highest level since January 2023. Further details revealed a core reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a gauge of underlying inflation rose 3.3% YoY in May from 3.0% in the prior month. Stronger CPI prints pointed to broadening inflationary pressures in Japan and gives the BoJ more impetus to hike interest rates in the coming months. However, the BoJ earlier this week signaled its preference to move cautiously in normalizing still-easy monetary policy and decided to slow the pace of reduction in its bond purchases from fiscal 2026. Adding to this, the gloomy economic outlook and the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs suggest that the BoJ could forgo hiking interest rates in 2025. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, projected two rate cuts by the end of 2025, though officials forecast only one 25-basis points rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, seven of the 19 policymakers indicated they wanted no cuts this year, up from four in March, amid persistent worries that the Trump administration's tariffs could push up consumer prices. Meanwhile, Trump earlier this week said that tariffs on the pharma sector are coming soon. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets ahead of the July 9 deadline for higher reciprocal US tariffs. Adding to this, rising geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on investors' sentiment, which, along with relatively hawkish BoJ expectations, underpins the Japanese Yen. On the geopolitical front, the Iran-Israel conflict enters its eighth day as Trump weighs US involvement in the war. According to the White House, Trump said that he will allow two weeks for diplomacy to proceed before deciding whether to launch a strike on Iran. European foreign ministers are slated to meet Iranian officials on Friday and press them to de-escalate.USD/JPY could attract dip-buyers; the overnight breakout through a short-term range remains in playFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY par's back-to-back close above the 145.00 psychological mark this week, along with the overnight move beyond the previous monthly peak, around the 145.45 area, was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Hence, any further pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity near the 144.50-144.45 area. This, in turn, should help limit losses near the 144.00 round figure. A convincing break below the latter, however, would negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, the 145.75 area, or the monthly top touched on Thursday, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 146.00 mark. This is closely followed by the May 29 peak, around the 146.25-146.30 region, above which the USD/JPY pair could aim to challenge the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged just ahead of the 147.00 round figure. Some follow-through buying might then pave the way for a move towards the 147.40-147.45 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 mark and 148.65 region, or the May monthly swing high. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The gauge excluding food and energy is widely used to measure underlying inflation trends as these two components are more volatile. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 19, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: - Previous: 3% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

05:05 Japan's Kato expects BoJ to manage monetary policy towards 2% price goal
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to manage monetary policy towards 2% price target.

04:56 US President Donald Trump: I will give Iran last chance to make a deal before we strike
According to the US Senate Intelligence Committee Chair, US President Donald Trump said that he will give Iran the last chance to make a deal to end its nuclear program. Trump added that he would delay his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks.

04:48 Australian Dollar remains stronger following PBoC’s interest rate decision
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent losses on Friday. The AUD/USD pair remains stronger following the release of the interest rate decision from China. However, the upside of the pair could be limited due to dampened risk sentiment amid escalating Middle East tensions.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds ground as the People’s Bank of China announced to leave the Loan Prime Rates unchanged.The PBoC kept the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, on Friday.The US Dollar may regain its ground due to the potential threat of US direct involvement in the Middle East conflicts.The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent losses on Friday. The AUD/USD pair remains stronger following the release of the interest rate decision from China. However, the upside of the pair could be limited due to dampened risk sentiment amid escalating Middle East tensions.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) decided to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.US intelligence agencies believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear weapon, even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary to make a bomb. However, Iran was likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the US military attacked Iran's uranium enrichment site Fordo, or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, senior US intelligence sources added, The New York Times.The US Dollar (USD) received support from heightened safe-haven demand amid rising concerns over potential US involvement in the Israel-Iran air war. The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its seventh day as the two countries continue further air attacks on Thursday. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt noted that US President Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran.Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Employment Change fell by 2.5K in May against a 87.6K increase in April (revised from 89K) and the consensus forecast of a 25K rise. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.1% in May, as expected.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar extends losses on technical pullbackThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading lower at around 98.60 at the time of writing. Traders will likely gauge the Fed's Monetary Policy Report, scheduled for release on Friday.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5% in June as widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still sees around 50 basis points of interest rate cuts through the end of 2025.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that ongoing policy uncertainty will keep the Fed in a rate-hold stance, and any rate cuts will be contingent on further improvement in labor and inflation data.Bloomberg cited unnamed sources on Thursday, reporting that “US officials prepare for possible strike on Iran in coming days.” “The US plans for any attack on Iran continue to evolve.” Moreover, the Wall Street Journal cited individuals familiar with discussions, saying that US President Trump said late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but held it to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform, calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Investors are concerned that the United States will participate in the Israel-Iran conflict.G7 leaders issued a joint statement on Monday: “We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” The leaders emphasized that resolving the Iranian crisis could lead to broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.China Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY, but came in below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China noted that the domestic economy is expected to have remained generally stable for the first half (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China may struggle since the second quarter due to uncertain trade policies.Australian Dollar tests nine-day EMA barrier near 0.6500The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6480 on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the revival of the bullish bias as the pair attempts to rebound toward the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 mark, suggesting the strengthening of a bullish bias. However, the pair is positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is still weaker.A successful return to the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to test the barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6492, followed by the seven-month high of 0.6552, which was recorded on June 16. A break above this crucial resistance zone may reinforce the bullish bias and lead the pair to target the eight-month high at 0.6687, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6760.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may target the 50-day EMA at 0.6436. A break below this level would weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.10% -0.13% -0.13% -0.18% -0.05% -0.07% EUR 0.20% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% GBP 0.10% -0.07% 0.08% 0.00% 0.12% 0.09% 0.07% JPY 0.13% -0.07% -0.08% 0.06% -0.06% -0.06% 0.01% CAD 0.13% -0.07% -0.01% -0.06% -0.01% -0.15% 0.06% AUD 0.18% -0.18% -0.12% 0.06% 0.01% 0.25% -0.05% NZD 0.05% -0.16% -0.09% 0.06% 0.15% -0.25% -0.02% CHF 0.07% -0.14% -0.07% -0.01% -0.06% 0.05% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator PBoC Interest Rate Decision The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holds scheduled meetings on a quarterly basis. However, China’s benchmark interest rate – the loan prime rate (LPR), a pricing reference for bank lending – is fixed every month. If the PBoC forecasts high inflation (hawkish) it raises interest rates, which is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). Likewise, if the PBoC sees inflation in the Chinese economy falling (dovish) and cuts or keeps interest rates unchanged, it is bearish for CNY. Still, China’s currency doesn’t have a floating exchange rate determined by markets and its value against the US Dollar is fixed mainly by the PBoC on a daily basis. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 20, 2025 01:15 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3% Consensus: 3% Previous: 3% Source: The People's Bank of China

04:44 USD/CAD weakens below 1.3700 as investors assess Israel-Iran conflict
The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3695, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The US dollar (USD) edges lower after US President Donald Trump announced that he will decide on US involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict within two weeks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD softens to around 1.3695 in Friday’s Asian session. Trump is still considering whether to order a US strike on Iran’s nuclear program.Fed’s hawkish hold and lower crude oil prices could help limit the pair’s losses. The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3695, snapping the three-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The US dollar (USD) edges lower after US President Donald Trump announced that he will decide on US involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict within two weeks. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is due later on Friday.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to intensify attacks on “strategic targets” in Iran. His decision to escalate its military operation against Iran comes after an Iranian missile reportedly struck a major hospital in the southern city of Beersheba. Nonetheless, the White House said late Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to order a US strike on Iran’s nuclear program. His latest stance signals a step back after a run of tough rhetoric, which lifts the riskier assets like the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and creates a headwind for the pair. Investors will watch for signs of whether the US will increase involvement in the conflict. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold the interest rates steady at its June meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank signaled a slower pace of cuts in the future amid concern that Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects to deliver two rate cuts later this year, according to the “dot plot.” The hawkish hold of the Fed could provide some support to the Greenback in the near term. Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices might undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1695 vs. 7.1729 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1695 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1729 and 7.1801 Reuters estimate.

04:07 PBOC leaves Loan Prime Rates unchanged in June
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

04:00 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3%)
China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3%)

03:38 US assesses Iran remains undecided on building a bomb
The New York Times reported late Thursday that US intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear weapon even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so.

03:25 WTI trims gains below $73.50 as Trump says Iran decision to come within two week
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.25 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges lower as US President Donald Trump announced that he will decide on US involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict within two weeks.

03:01 BoJ Minutes note rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Friday, per the BoJ Minutes of the May meeting.

02:33 Japan’s National CPI rises 3.5% YoY in May, Core CPI climbs more than expected
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% YoY in May, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

02:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.5% in May from previous 3.6%
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.5% in May from previous 3.6%

02:30 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 3%
Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 3%

02:30 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (3.6%) in May
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (3.6%) in May

02:03 GBP/USD rebounds as Greenback pressure eases
GBP/USD found some room on the high side on Thursday, climbing back above the 1.3450 level after catching an early technical bounce from the 1.3400 handle.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD found a slight rebound to muscle back above 1.3450 on Thursday.Despite near-term Greenback strength on geopolitical concerns, markets took a break during the midweek US holiday session.Israel-Iran tensions continue to rise, and the Trump administration is drawing out a decision on getting involved directly.GBP/USD found some room on the high side on Thursday, climbing back above the 1.3450 level after catching an early technical bounce from the 1.3400 handle. Broad-market flows have favored the US Dollar recently as Middle East tensions continue to rise, but US markets were dark for a national holiday on Thursday, giving Cable some room to breathe and easing off of USD bidding.According to a CBS reporter posting on the X (nee Twitter) social media platform, President Donald Trump may be considering an order for American military assets to target an Iranian nuclear production facility. If the Trump administration decides to go ahead with the reported proposal, it will be the first time the US has deployed military assets in a pre-emptive manner since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Citing an Israeli government official, The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli government expects a final decision from the Trump administration within the next 24 to 48 hours.Reports citing three separate diplomats have confirmed that personnel within the US administration, specifically US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, has been in regular contact with his Iranian counterpart, helping to temper some of the emotional fallout striking off-market traders on Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled to US Envoy Witkoff that the Iranian government is willing to be ‘flexible’ on its nuclear plans and resume talks, but only if Israel ceases its long-range missile strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that he will travel to Geneva on Friday to meet with his European counterparts as well.UK Retail Sales figures for May are due on Friday, but little market movement is likely to come out of the figures. Investors are broadly anticipating a contraction in Retail Sales data on a monthly basis, forecasting a print of -0.5% compared to April’s 1.2% upswing.GBP/USD price forecastThin Greenback volumes on Thursday gave GBP/USD a leg up, pushing the pair into a technical bounce from the 1.3400 level. The pair is still trading on the north side of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3355, and long-run bullish momentum still has a technical floor priced in from a rising trendline through the same area.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:02 NZD/USD weakens below 0.6000 ahead of PBOC rate decision
The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5990 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) amid rising fears over a potential spread of the conflict in the Middle East.

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-20) in June: Actual (-18)
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-20) in June: Actual (-18)

00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.4% in May
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.4% in May

00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.3% in May
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.3% in May

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ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

14:11 JPY: Food prices continue to drive inflation – Commerzbank Rice accounts for just 0.62% of the Japanese consumer price index, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

14:04 GBP: Vote split endorses August BoE cut – ING The Pound Sterling (GBP) was only lightly touched by a consensus Bank of England hold on Thursday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

14:03 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD is testing $3,340 support under growing bearish pressure Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Friday as easing concerns of a regional war in the Middle East have undermined demand for safe havens.

13:58 USD: Support from geopolitical risk faltering – ING The White House said yesterday it will decide whether to order direct strikes on Iran within two weeks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

13:15 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to near $36 as Middle East conflict lingers Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back half of its early losses and rebounds to near $36.10 during the European trading session on Friday.

13:15 USD/CHF: SNB may not be done cutting rates – OCBC The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rate 25bp to bring policy rate down to 0%, as widely anticipated. USD/CHF was last at 0.8165 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:56 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6460/0.6510 – UOB Group Instead of continuing to decline, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6460/0.6510 against US Dollar (USD).

12:53 DXY: Slight retracement – OCBC US Dollar (USD) was a touch softer this morning alongside brent and gold. Dollar Index (DXY) gapped down today; last at 98.60 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:49 GBP/USD: Can test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback – UOB Group Rebound in Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback against US Dollar (USD) is likely; the strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat.

12:44 EUR: Back to 1.15 – ING EUR/USD is back above 1.150 as markets priced out a certain degree of geopolitical risk off the pair, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

12:38 USD/JPY Price Forecast: The pair remains bullish with 146.15 on sight The US Dollar keeps trading in a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows against a weaker Yen and is on track to close the week 0.8% higher, despite the strong Japanese inflation figures seen earlier today.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:23 US Dollar Index retraces to near 98.60 as Trump reassesses decision to strike Iran The US Dollar (USD) retraces from its weekly high as comments from the White House that it will decide on its plans of striking Iran in the next two weeks have provided interim relief to investors.

11:34 WTI Oil remains steady near $74.00 as risks of supply disruptions looming Crude Oil prices keep trading near their highest levels since January, with the barrel of WTI trading at the $74.00 area at the moment of writing.

11:00 Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €-2.112B in April from previous €-2.998B Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €-2.112B in April from previous €-2.998B

10:54 EUR/JPY fails to breach resistance at 167.60 but remains near multi-month highs The Euro is appreciating against the Japanese Yen for the second consecutive day on Friday, favoured by a moderately brighter market sentiment.

10:53 Pound Sterling faces selling pressure after poor UK Retail Sales data The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against its major peers on Friday after the release of the weaker-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for May.

10:39 EUR/USD nudges higher as the US Dollar pulls back with risk aversion easing The EUR/USD pair is trading higher for the third consecutive day on Friday and has returned above the 1.1500 level, trading at 1.1520 at the moment of writing.

10:37 USD/CHF consolidates above mid-0.8100s; remains close to weekly high set on Thursday The USD/CHF pair lacks a firm intraday directional bias on Friday and oscillates in a narrow band, just above mid-0.8100s through the first half of the European session.

10:18 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously around 0.6000 The NZD/USD pair trades in a limited range near the psychological level of 0.6000 during European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair consolidates as investors seek clarity on the next action by the United States (US) on Iran.

10:04 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as geopolitics remain under spotlight Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 20:

10:00 Turkey Consumer Confidence increased to 85.1 in June from previous 84.8 Turkey Consumer Confidence increased to 85.1 in June from previous 84.8

09:45 BoJ's Ueda: Japan's economy is recovering moderately Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the Japanese economy recovering moderately albeit with some weaknesses.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (97) in June: Actual (96) France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (97) in June: Actual (96)

09:42 FX option expiries for Jun 20 NY cut FX option expiries for Jun 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

09:10 EUR/GBP gains traction to near 0.8550 on downbeat UK Retail Sales data The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8545 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the weaker-than-expected UK economic data.

09:01 UK Retail Sales decline 2.7% MoM in May vs. -0.5% expected The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales declined 2.7% month-over-month (MoM) in May after climbing 1.3% in April (revised from 1.2%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday.

09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -2.8%, below expectations (-0.5%) in May United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -2.8%, below expectations (-0.5%) in May

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing dipped from previous £20.155B to £17.686B in May United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing dipped from previous £20.155B to £17.686B in May

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (-1.2%) in May Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (-1.2%) in May

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in May Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in May

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (-0.5%) in May: Actual (-2.7%) United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (-0.5%) in May: Actual (-2.7%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in May: Actual (-1.3%) United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in May: Actual (-1.3%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (1.8%) in May United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (1.8%) in May

08:29 AUD/JPY climbs to 94.35-94.40 resistance zone; upside potential seems limited The AUD/JPY cross is building on the overnight bounce from the 93.80 area and gaining some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday.

08:11 EUR/JPY extends upside to near 167.50 despite strong Japanese CPI inflation data The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 167.50 during the early European session on Friday. The uncertainty over the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY).

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:31 USD/INR snaps three-day winning spree as US avoids immediate strike on Iran The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps a three-day winning streak and opens on a positive note to near 86.60 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj up to -36 in June from previous -37 Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj up to -36 in June from previous -37

07:28 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dives to over one-week low, further below $36.00 Silver (XA/USD) is seen prolonging its retracement slide from the highest level since February 2012 touched earlier this week and losing ground for the third consecutive day on Friday.

07:06 Japan’s Akazawa: We won’t fixate on July 9 in US trade talks Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that Japan will not fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels, per Bloomberg.

06:55 Gold price drops to over one-week low as Fed’s hawkish stance offsets Middle East tensions Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and touches over a one-week low, near the $3,345-3,344 area in the last hour.

05:17 Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on domestic inflation data-inspired uptick The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the monthly low touched the previous day.

05:05 Japan's Kato expects BoJ to manage monetary policy towards 2% price goal Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to manage monetary policy towards 2% price target.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1695 vs. 7.1729 previous On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1695 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1729 and 7.1801 Reuters estimate.

04:07 PBOC leaves Loan Prime Rates unchanged in June The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

04:00 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3%) China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3%)

03:01 BoJ Minutes note rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Friday, per the BoJ Minutes of the May meeting.

02:33 Japan’s National CPI rises 3.5% YoY in May, Core CPI climbs more than expected Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% YoY in May, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

02:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.5% in May from previous 3.6% Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.5% in May from previous 3.6%

02:30 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 3% Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3.3% (May) vs 3%

02:30 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (3.6%) in May Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (3.6%) in May

02:03 GBP/USD rebounds as Greenback pressure eases GBP/USD found some room on the high side on Thursday, climbing back above the 1.3450 level after catching an early technical bounce from the 1.3400 handle.

02:02 NZD/USD weakens below 0.6000 ahead of PBOC rate decision The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5990 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) amid rising fears over a potential spread of the conflict in the Middle East.

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-20) in June: Actual (-18) United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-20) in June: Actual (-18)

00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.4% in May South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.4% in May

00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.3% in May South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.3% in May

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