Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

WTI crude oil renews its intraday low near $67.30 while reversing the previous day’s corrective bounce off a 27-month low during early Tuesday. In doi

WTI takes offers to refresh intraday low, reverses the previous day’s bounce off the lowest levels since December 2021.US Dollar Index licks its wounds near five-week low, traces rebound in yields.Market players remain cautious amid banking sector fallout, hawkish Fed bets.Receding optimism surrounding China, cautious mood ahead of API inventories favor Oil bears.WTI crude oil renews its intraday low near $67.30 while reversing the previous day’s corrective bounce off a 27-month low during early Tuesday. In doing so, the black gold takes clues from the US Dollar’s rebound, as well as a corrective bounce in the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints the first daily gains around 103.35 as the greenback bears lick their wounds after a three-day losing streak. That said, Treasury bond yields remain inactive as Japan’s holidays limited bond trading in Asia. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields bounced off the lowest levels since September 2022 the previous day. It should be noted that the market’s failure to cheer the risk-on mood contrasts with the headlines suggesting an ongoing discussion about deposit guarantees in the US banks and challenging the WTI crude oil traders. Also important to note is the lack of risk-positive statements from China, as well as hopes of more Oil output, due to US President Biden’s readiness for releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on need. It’s worth noting that Saudi Arabia’s support to the OPEC+ supply-cut accord and hopes for more energy demand in the years to come, as per the latest energy demand forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, known as OPEC+, as well as the US Energy Information Administration. Above all, recently promising hawkish Fed bets and fears of a banking crisis weigh on the WTI crude Oil prices ahead of the weekly release of industry inventories, from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Technical analysis Although the oversold RSI triggered WTI crude oil’s recovery from a multi-month low, the recovery remains elusive unless crossing the December 2022 low of nearly $70.30.  

USD/MXN consolidates the previous day’s losses from a 1.5-month high during a sluggish Tuesday morning as Mexican Peso traders celebrate Benito Juarez

USD/MXN picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from six-week high.Convergence of 100-HMA, 50-HMA challenges Mexican Peso pair buyers.Mexican markets are off due to Benito Juarez's Birthday.Looming bull cross on MACD, steady RSI keeps buyers hopeful.USD/MXN consolidates the previous day’s losses from a 1.5-month high during a sluggish Tuesday morning as Mexican Peso traders celebrate Benito Juarez's Birthday. That said, the pair remains mildly bid near 18.84 by the press time. In doing so, the Mexican Peso pair pokes a convergence of the 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and the 100-HMA. It should be noted, however, that the impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14) keeps USD/MXN buyers hopeful of crossing the 18.85 key resistance confluence. Following that, the 19.00 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during a likely run-up towards the latest peak of 19.23 and to the previous monthly high surrounding 19.30. In a case where USD/MXN remains firmer past 19.30, bulls may find it difficult to cross the 19.60 and 19.90 levels marked in December 2022 before approaching the 20.00 psychological magnet. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive until the USD/MXN pair stays beyond a one-week-old support line, close to 18.70 by the press time. Even if the Mexican Peso pair breaks the aforementioned support line, the 200-HMA level of near 18.65 can prod the bears before giving them control. USD/MXN: Hourly chart Trend: Further upside expected  

NZD/USD is facing pressure as headlines report that hardline US Republicans are opposed to bank deposit guarantees beyond the $250,000 limit. Some Rep

NZD/USD is under pressure as a group of republicans challenges universal federal guarantee.Investors cautious ahead of FOMC meeting: hike by 25bps or pause.RBNZ follows BoJ and declines Fed’s swap line offer.NZD/USD is facing pressure as headlines report that hardline US Republicans are opposed to bank deposit guarantees beyond the $250,000 limit. Some Republicans have suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should unwind its extraordinary funding facilities, arguing that a universal guarantee on all bank deposits sets a dangerous precedent, encouraging future irresponsible behavior. According to earlier reports, some banking groups have requested universal guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) on all bank deposits due to deteriorating banking conditions. Bloomberg reported on Monday that US officials were considering expanding FDIC coverage to all deposits, a measure implemented during the 2008 crisis but now requiring congressional approval. On Monday, markets were buoyed by various liquidity options, such as the swap line, the UBS-Credit Suisse merger, and the potential FDIC extension. However, it appears that the FDIC may struggle to cover all bank deposits, which could be a significant setback for depositors. As the FOMC meeting approaches, investors remain divided on whether to expect a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike or a pause. Currently, the market is leaning towards a 25 bps increase. Regarding the swap line opened by the Fed, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has followed the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in stating that there is no immediate need for it. Earlier, New Zealand's Trade Balance data for February was released, with exports at $5.23 billion, down from $5.47 billion previously,  and imports at $5.95 billion compared to $7.42 billion previously. Levels to watch  

GBP/USD bulls are in the market but are meeting resistance above equal highs as for the prior analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls move towards bea

GBP/USD bears are testing prior equal highs level near 1.2270. A 61.8% Fibonacci is in focus which is near prior highs of 1.2200. GBP/USD bulls are in the market but are meeting resistance above equal highs as for the prior analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls move towards bear´s lair.  GBP/USD prior analysis It was noted that GBP/USD was on the backside of the bullish market but is riding a micro-bull trend for the time being. 1.2200 remains key in this regard. It was stated that while holding above 1.2200, the focus is on the upside with the bulls taking on equal highs from February in the upper quarter of the 1.22 area. Eyes remain on the 1.2320s at this juncture. However, still, if the bears move in, considering that the price is on the backside of the prior dominant bull trend, then there will be prospects of a break of the micro bull trend and structure in and around 1.2200. GBP/USD update GBP/USD is testing a prior resistance and an equal highs level near 1.2270. A break of this will open the risk of a deeper correction of the prior H4 bullish impulse with the 61.8% Fibonacci in focus that is near prior highs of 1.2200. 

Market sentiment stays mixed during early Tuesday as the holiday in Japan restricts yields while the stock futures struggle to cheer hopes of deposit

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic amid mixed headlines about banking crisis, Federal Reserve.Bloomberg reports that US Officials discuss ways to secure all bank deposits under FDIC.Doubts on the insurance coverage, hawkish Fed bets allowed yields to recover before Japan’s holiday restricted bond moves in Asia.Market sentiment stays mixed during early Tuesday as the holiday in Japan restricts yields while the stock futures struggle to cheer hopes of deposit guarantee amid the looming banking crisis. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,990, after refreshing an eight-day high, whereas the Treasury bond yields remain inactive but keep the previous day’s bounce off multi-day low. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields bounced off the lowest levels since September 2022 the previous day. “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis,” reported Bloomberg. The news quotes anonymous people with knowledge of the talks saying, “Treasury Department staff are reviewing whether federal regulators have enough emergency authority to temporarily insure deposits greater than the current $250,000 cap on most accounts without formal consent from a deeply divided Congress.” It should be noted that the fears of the FDIC’s inability to cover the US bank deposits, due to the limitations of funds in the reserve, join the doubts surrounding the UBS-Credit Suisse deal to probe the risk-on mood amid a sluggish Asian session. Analysts at S&P think that it is unlikely that some US bank failures will prevent policymakers from sticking to the task of taming inflation, reported Reuters early Tuesday in Asia. The global rating agency also mentioned that the decision to write off Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds may contribute to a higher cost of capital for banks. On the same line were comments from a Senior Swiss lawmaker who warned on Monday that “the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is an enormous risk.” That said, the latest read of the CME’s FedWatch tool mentions the probability of witnessing a 0.25% Fed rate hike on Wednesday as near to 75%, up from the last week’s 65%. It’s worth noting that the sluggish markets allow the US Dollar to lick its wounds near the lowest level in five weeks while the Gold price renews upside momentum after retreating from the Year-To-Date (YTD) high the previous day. Looking ahead, second-tier housing data from the US could join the risk catalysts to direct short-term market moves. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Also read: Forex Today: Currencies respond to improvement in market sentiment, Fed takes center stage

Silver price (XAG/USD) is juggling in a narrow range below $22.60 in the Tokyo session. The white metal recovered after a correction from $22.20 but f

Silver price is juggling around $22.60 as investors have sidelined ahead of Fed’s monetary policy.Investors have turned skeptical about whether the Fed would continue hiking rates further or choose silence this time. The street has cheered liquidity assistance from various financial institutions to support the First Republic Bank.Silver price (XAG/USD) is juggling in a narrow range below $22.60 in the Tokyo session. The white metal recovered after a correction from $22.20 but failed to extend recovery as investors are uncertain about Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Amid rising fears of banking turmoil, investors have turned skeptical about whether the Fed would continue hiking rates further or choose silence this time. A recovery move by S&P500 indicates that investors have started digesting the volatility linked to the banking fiasco. S&P500 futures have extended gains further, portraying further improvement in the risk appetite of the market participants. It seems that investors have cheered liquidity assistance from various financial institutions, which have come forward to provide support to the First Republic Bank. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has continued to remain choppy around 103.33 as investors have sidelined ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy. Analysts at ING believe “We do not expect too much volatility if conditions allow the Fed to hike 25 bps and the dot plots do not surprise too much and an unlikely 50 bps hike would be very bullish for the Dollar.” Silver technical outlook Silver price has sensed cushion around a minor inventory accumulation phase plotted near $22.20 on an hourly scale. The recovery move from the Silber price is expected to push it toward March 20 high around $22.72. Advancing 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $22.48 and $22.32 add to the upside filters. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is gathering strength for climbing into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same would strengthen the Silver price further. Silver hourly chart  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8763 vs. the last close of 6.8785 and the estimate at 6.8753. About the fix

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8763 vs. the last close of 6.8785 and the estimate at 6.8753. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

Bloomberg has published an article that describes the possibilities of how all bank deposits could be guaranteed if the crisis expands. The article re

Bloomberg has published an article that describes the possibilities of how all bank deposits could be guaranteed if the crisis expands. The article reads that ´´US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.´´ ´´Treasury Department staff are reviewing whether federal regulators have enough emergency authority to temporarily insure deposits greater than the current $250,000 cap on most accounts without formal consent from a deeply divided Congress, according to people with knowledge of the talks.´´ Meanwhile, there are still concerns over regional US banks. First Republic shares tumbled as much as 50% on Monday and were last down about 39%. Additionally, the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are taking coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via standing US Dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

USD/CAD renews its intraday high around 1.3680 as it pares the biggest daily loss in more than a week while bouncing off a multi-day-old support line,

USD/CAD rebound from one-week low, mildly bid of late.Convergence of three-month-old support line, 21-DMA puts floor under Loonie prices.Bearish MACD signals, descending resistance line from March 10 prod bulls.USD/CAD renews its intraday high around 1.3680 as it pares the biggest daily loss in more than a week while bouncing off a multi-day-old support line, as well as from the 21-DMA, during early Tuesday. It should, however, be noted that the recovery moves fail to gain support from the MACD, as the oscillator keeps flashing bearish signals. Also testing the Loonie pair buyers is a seven-day-old descending resistance line near 1.3745. Even if the quote rises past the 1.3745 hurdle, multiple resistances between 1.3750-60 can challenge the USD/CAD buyers before directing them to the monthly high surrounding 1.3865, a break of which opens the door for the pair’s run-up towards the previous yearly top of 1.3977. On the contrary, the 21-DMA and a three-month-old support line, respectively near 1.3670 and 1.3660, restrict short-term USD/CAD downside. In a case where the Loonie pair provides a daily closing below 1.3660, a slump toward the monthly low of 1.3555 can’t be ruled out. Though, the 1.3600 round figure may act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated fall. Should the USD/CAD bears keep the reins past 1.3555, the late January swing high around 1.3520 appears the last defense of the pair buyers. Overall, USD/CAD remains bearish despite the latest recovery moves. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected  

EUR/USD has maintained its bullish bias for the past three days, driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar due to falling US Treasury (UST) bond yie

EUR/USD maintains bullish momentum amid falling US Treasury yields.Key resistance and support levels to watch as investors await the Fed meeting.EUR/USD knocking the trio junction: A combination of resistance. EUR/USD has maintained its bullish bias for the past three days, driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar due to falling US Treasury (UST) bond yields. A shift in interest rate repricing has caused the UST yield to enter a corrective decline. The three-day bullish rally for EUR/USD has led to a retest of the descending trendline that originates from February's high at the 1.1036 level. The descending trendline intersects the 38.2% Fibonacci level at the 1.0720 mark, which also coincides with the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA). This convergence of factors creates a significant and challenging resistance. A decisive break above this level could propel the price towards a series of resistances, starting with last week's high at 1.0753, followed by the 50% Fibonacci level. The final line of resistance would be the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Any pullback is likely to be limited around the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the 21-DMA. A convincing break below this point could send EUR/USD down to the multi-month low of 1.0525, which also serves as the last line of support. As we approach an important Fed meeting, it is not uncommon for investors to be polarized regarding policy decisions. Consequently, the pair is likely to tread water ahead of the event. All crucial levels will remain on the watchlist, as volatility is expected during the FOMC policy decision. EUR/USD: Daily chart

The AUD/USD pair has slipped to near 0.6705 amid the release of the less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The Board reiterated that fu

AUD/USD has slipped firmly to near 0.6700 as RBA considered only 25 bps a viable option for March’s monetary policy.Recent upbeat Australian employment figures have conveyed that the fight against sticky inflation is extremely complicated.After the collapse of three mid-size US commercial banks, Fed is required to revive the confidence of investors.The AUD/USD pair has slipped to near 0.6705 amid the release of the less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The Board reiterated that further tightening of the POLICY would likely be required given inflation was still too high, the labor market tight and business surveys showed solid activity. RBA policymakers considered only a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike as a viable option for March’s monetary policy. Investors should be aware of the fact that RBA Governor Philip Lowe hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 bps consecutively for the fifth time to 3.60%. Also, it was the 10th consecutive interest rate hike by the RBA in its battle against stubborn inflation. Recent upbeat Australian employment figures have conveyed that the fight against sticky inflation is extremely complicated and RBA policymakers are still required to take tough decisions in times when inflation uncertainty has joined fears of a global banking meltdown. S&P500 futures have extended Monday’s gains in the Asian session as investors have ignored the fears associated with upcoming monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed), portraying further enhancement in the risk appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has continued to remain sideways around 103.30 as investors are anticipating a less hawkish monetary policy and interest rate guidance. After the collapse of three mid-size United States commercial banks, Fed chair Jerome Powell is required to revive the confidence of investors, which could be done by mild tweaks to the interest rate policy. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds has weakened further as the collaborative effort of various central banks of providing liquidity assistance in the form of US Dollars for supporting commercial banks has escalated inflation expectations. This has led to a rise in the returns offers on US Treasury bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped to 3.5%.  

As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls need to show up or 131.00 is a viable target, the bears moved in to capitalize on failures to

USD/JPY bears are in the market and 131.20 is key in this regard.A breakout of the coiled market conditions could be on the cards. As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls need to show up or 131.00 is a viable target, the bears moved in to capitalize on failures to crack the trendline resistance. USD/JPY prior analysis It was stated that USD/JPY´s M-formation was pulling in the price to the neckline support and if the bears stuck around, then while being on the front side of the bear trend, 131.00 could easily come back under pressure for the days ahead: USD/JPY update The market melted and is now correcting the move: On an hourlñy basis, as per below, the market is coiled and a breakout to the downside could be in store: 131.20 is key in this regard.

AUD/JPY struggles to stick to the previous day’s corrective bounce off a three-month low as it drops to 88.00 after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (R

AUD/JPY renews intraday low while struggling to keep the previous day’s rebound from three-month low.RBA Minutes highlights the need for further monetary policy tightening but also praises the pause.Yields recover amid mixed concerns about banking crisis, hawkish Fed bets.AUD/JPY struggles to stick to the previous day’s corrective bounce off a three-month low as it drops to 88.00 after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) mixed commentary, published during early Tuesday morning in Asia. Adding strength to the cross-currency pair’s corrective bounce could be the latest recovery in the US Treasury bond yields amid mixed market sentiment. As per the latest RBA Minutes, Further monetary policy tightening is expected to be required to bring inflation down. The statement also mentioned that a pause would allow time to examine the economy's prospects. Also read: RBA: Further monetary policy tightening is expected to be required to bring inflation down. On a different page, the mixed concerns around the banking turmoil challenge the previous risk-on mood and join the hawkish Fed bets to revive the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields bounced off the lowest levels since September 2022 the previous day, mildly bid during the early Asian hours on Tuesday. Talking about the risk, the UBS-Credit Suisse deal and the global central banks’ efforts to tame the liquidity crunch previously tamed the market’s pessimism. However, the details suggest no relief from the banking fallout and allow the yields to pare recent losses near the multi-day low. Late Monday, analysts at S&P think that it is unlikely that some US bank failures will prevent policymakers from sticking to the task of taming inflation, reported Reuters early Tuesday in Asia. The global rating agency also mentioned that the decision to write off Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds may contribute to a higher cost of capital for banks. On the same line were comments from a Senior Swiss lawmaker who warned on Monday that “the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is an enormous risk.” Technical analysis Nearly oversold RSI (14) challenges AUD/JPY bears even if a downside break of the three-month-old ascending trend line, close to 89.35 by the press time, keeps the pair sellers hopeful. That said, the late 2022 bottom surrounding 87.00 appears the short-term key support.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are out as follows: Key notes Minutes of the March 7 policy meeting out on Tuesday showed the Reserve Bank of Au

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are out as follows: Key notes Minutes of the March 7 policy meeting out on Tuesday showed the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Board only discussed raising the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, compared with weighing between 25 bps and 50 bps hikes in February. Monetary policy was already in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain. Members "agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy," according to the minutes.Further monetary policy tightening is expected to be required to bring inflation down.The Board reiterated that further tightening of the monetary would likely be required given inflation was still too high, the labor market tight and business surveys showed solid activity. The RBA noted that recent data releases on Gross Domestic Product, jobs, wages and inflation, had come in softer than expected, but the shortfalls to expectations were not large. The Board said they would be watching upcoming releases on employment, inflation, retail trade and business surveys, as well as the developments in the global economy at the April meeting. AUD/USD update Governor Philip Lowe earlier this month said the central bank was closer to pausing its rate increases as policy was now in restrictive territory, and suggested a halt could come as soon as April depending on the data. Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles for clear directions around $1,980, following a pullback from the yearly high above $2,000, as markets slip into the ca

Gold price keeps the previous day’s pullback from YTD high, directionless of late.Corrective bounce in United States Treasury bond yields, hawkish Federal Reserve bets prod XAU/USD bulls.Banking crisis, successful break of the previous key resistance line favor Gold buyers.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles for clear directions around $1,980, following a pullback from the yearly high above $2,000, as markets slip into the cautious mode ahead of the key data/events. Also challenging the Gold traders could be the recent rebound in the United States Treasury bond yields and the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Gold price cheers technical breakout, banking turmoil Gold price marked a sustained break of a downward-sloping resistance line from August 2020, now support around $1,940, in the last week, which in turn joins the traders’ rush for risk-safety to keep the traditional safe haven on the bull’s radar despite the latest pullback. It should be noted that the the UBS-Credit Suisse deal and the global central banks’ efforts to tame liquidity crunch seemed to have tamed the market’s pessimism and allowed the Gold buyers to take a breather. However, the details suggest no relief from the banking fallout and put a floor under the XAU/USD price. During late Monday, analysts at S&P think that it is unlikely that some US bank failures will prevent policymakers from sticking to the task of taming inflation, reported Reuters early Tuesday in Asia. The global rating agency also mentioned that the decision to write off Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds may contribute to a higher cost of capital for banks. On the same line were comments from a Senior Swiss lawmaker who warned on Monday that “the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is an enormous risk.” While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed with gains but S&P 500 Futures struggle for clear directions. XAU/USD retreats on Treasury bond yields’ rebound While the mixed concerns around the banking turmoil challenges the previous risk-on mood, the United States Treasury bond yields manage to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce, which in turn weigh on the Gold price. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields bounced off the lowest levels since September 2022 the previous day, mildly bid during the early Asian hours on Tuesday. It should be noted that the recently hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) also seem to prod the XAU/USD bulls ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. As per the latest read of the CME’s FedWatch tool, probability of witnessing a 0.25% Fed rate hike on Wednesday is 75%, up from the last week’s 65%. Moving on, Gold traders should keep their eyes on the risk catalysts, as well as the US Treasury bond yields, for fresh impulse. Gold price technical analysis Gold price remains on the bull’s radar, despite the latest pullback from the Year-To-Date (YTD) high as the quote remains well-above the previous resistance line from August 2020, breached the last week. Adding strength to the bullish bias could be the price-positive signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) signals. It’s worthn noting that the Relative Strenght Index (RSI), placed at 14, flashes overnbought signals and hence suggest a pullback in the Gold price. That said, the XAU/USD retreat remains elusive unless the commodity remains firmer past the resistance-turned-trend line, currently around $1,948. Even if the quote Gold price remains weak past $1,948, the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) level surrounding $1,815 appears the last defense of the XAU/USD buyers. Alternatively, a sustained trading beyond the $2,000 psychological magnet could given comform to the bulls in dominating the momentum. Folowing that, the tops marked during the year 2020 and 2022, around $2070-75 appear the key upside hurdles for the Gold buyers to watch during the metal’s further advances. In a case where the XAU/USD remains firmer past $2,075 hurdle and renews the record high, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the Gold price movement between August 2018 and September 2022, near $2,180, will be in focus. Gold price: Weekly chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The EUR/GBP pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range of 0.8730 in the Asian session. The cross is eyeing a downside below the aforementi

EUR/GBP is expected to deliver a fresh downside below 0.8730 ahead of the BoE policy.ECB Lagarde reiterated fears of wage pressures and cited that inflation will still be high for a longer period.UK’s annual headline CPI is expected to trim to 9.8% while the core CPI would remain steady.The EUR/GBP pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range of 0.8730 in the Asian session. The cross is eyeing a downside below the aforementioned support as the street is anticipating more rates from the Bank of England (BoE) despite credible signs of banking turmoil. Financial instability in global markets after the collapse of three mid-size United States commercial banks and the 164-year-old Credit Suisse has spooked the sentiment of market participants. Two schools of thought have confused investors as one believes that central banks could adopt a steady approach on interest rates as banking shakedown could have its dramatic consequences ahead. While others believe that inflation is extremely stubborn, especially in the United Kingdom region, which is highly required to be tamed as early as possible. Therefore, the street is anticipating an announcement of a smaller interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to continue to weigh pressure on UK inflation. This would push interest rates to 4.25%. Before the BoE’s interest rate decision, UK’s inflation data will be keenly watched. As per the estimates, the annual headline CPI is expected to trim to 9.8% from the former release of 10.1%. While the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices would remain steady at 5.8%. On the Eurozone front, the commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on inflation projections and wages geared up expectations for the continuation of bumper rate hikes by the ECB. ECB Lagarde cited that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, as reported by Reuters. She further added that wage pressures have strengthened on the back of robust labor markets and added that employees are aiming to recoup some of the purchasing power.  

The US Dollar was pressured on Monday due to UBS' cut-price forced merger of its beleaguered rival Credit Suisse. The banks came together on an agreem

US Dollar bulls eye up a  38.2% Fibonacci that is near 104.20 and prior support. 102.80 guards prospects of a downside continuation towards 101.00 February lows. The US Dollar was pressured on Monday due to UBS' cut-price forced merger of its beleaguered rival Credit Suisse. The banks came together on an agreement and price tag of 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses in a takeover engineered by Swiss authorities. The US Dollar index, DXY, which weighs the greenback vs. a basket of currencies was touching its lowest level since Feb. 15 at 103.27. However, there are still concerns over regional US banks. First Republic shares tumbled as much as 50% on Monday and were last down about 39%. Additionally, the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are taking coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via standing US Dollar liquidity swap line arrangements. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's latest decision on interest rate hikes is due on Wednesday and adds an additional layer of uncertainty for investors. Rates currently stand at 4.5% to 4.75%.  Analysts at TD Securities explained that they ´´expect a 25bp rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.75%-5.00%. Post-meeting communication is likely to emphasize that the Fed is not done yet in terms of tightening (also reflected in a slightly more hawkish dot plot), with officials also flagging the more uncertain economic environment, resulting in an even larger emphasis on data dependence.´´ US Dollar technical analysis From the charts above, a bearish bias can be drawn considering that the market is on the backside of the prior bullish trend. A correction could be underway here and the 38.2% Fibonacci is up near 104.20 and prior support could be a target. 102.80 guards prospects of a downside continuation towards 101.00 February lows. 

USD/CHF has entered a consolidation phase this week, with the Swiss Franc finding some stability following the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse. After

USD/CHF consolidates as Swiss Franc stabilizes post-UBS and Credit Suisse merger.Anticipation builds for Federal Reserve: 25 bps hike or pause.Adversity is likely to remain amid the unfolding banking crisis.  USD/CHF has entered a consolidation phase this week, with the Swiss Franc finding some stability following the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse. After Credit Suisse defaulted amid a liquidity crunch, Swiss authorities intervened and facilitated the UBS takeover of the troubled bank. Attention has now shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision on Wednesday. Investors are divided on whether the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the forthcoming FOMC meeting or not. It is noteworthy that the Fed has recently opened its swap line to provide US Dollar liquidity to all central banks in need. Additionally, the Fed has been conducting instant lending operations through its discount window, resulting in a spike in the Fed's balance sheet despite ongoing Quantitative Tightening (QT). These actions appear contradictory, raising rates while injecting liquidity. However, such a scenario is not unprecedented, as the Bank of England (BoE) has demonstrated in the past. Thus, one cannot dismiss the possibility of similar Fed action. Although the odds favor a 25 bps rate hike from the Fed, it will be crucial to monitor the central bank's assessment of the underlying banking conditions for the US economy, given the recent failures of commercial banks. Market pricing has fluctuated dramatically over the past 10 days, with investors initially anticipating a larger half-point rate increase before banking stresses emerged, then at one point expecting rates to remain unchanged. Among economists, those predicting a quarter-point rise do not discount the possibility of a pause. Following the Fed's decision, markets will await the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) policy announcement. In light of the Credit Suisse turmoil, the likelihood of a 50 bps rate hike has diminished. Levels to watch  

EUR/JPY bears appear determined to break the multi-month-old support line as the quote drops to 140.75 as Tokyo opens for trading on Tuesday. The cros

EUR/JPY takes offers to renew intraday low, fades bounce off ascending support line from early August 2022.Failure to cross 200-EMA, bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful.Buyers need validation from three-month-old horizontal resistance to retake control.EUR/JPY bears appear determined to break the multi-month-old support line as the quote drops to 140.75 as Tokyo opens for trading on Tuesday. The cross-currency pair’s latest weakness could be linked to its failure to cross the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) despite bouncing off an upward-sloping support line from early August 2022. Not only a retreat from the 200-EMA but the bearish MACD signals also keep the EUR/JPY sellers hopeful of breaking the aforementioned key support, around 139.35 by the press time. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October 2022 upside, near 138.65, can act as an additional filter towards the south. In a case where the EUR/JPY remains bearish past the key Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, the sellers won’t hesitate to aim for August 2022 low surrounding 133.40. Meanwhile, the 200-EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could challenge the EUR/JPY pair’s recovery moves around 141.00 and 142.40. Should the pair buyers keep the reins past 142.40, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the three-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 143.00 will be crucial to watch for further upside. EUR/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The GBP/JPY pair has picked strength after defending the crucial support of 161.00 in the early Tokyo session. The cross is looking to extend its gain

GBP/JPY has sensed a buying interest around 161.00 as the BoJ has reiterated the need for an easy policy. Higher food prices and a shortage of labor have been major drivers for the extremely sticky UK inflation.The BoE could continue its interest rates hiking spell by 25 bps ahead.The GBP/JPY pair has picked strength after defending the crucial support of 161.00 in the early Tokyo session. The cross is looking to extend its gains further above 161.70 as the expectations of an exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have faded dramatically. The release of the BoJ Summary of Opinions associated with March’s monetary policy meeting on Monday indicated that board members advocated the need to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy for now, even as some warned of the need to scrutinize its side effects such as deteriorating market functions, as reported by Reuters. Going forward, Friday’s Japan inflation data will be keenly watched. As per the estimates, the annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will decline to 4.1% from the former release of 4.3%. And, the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices is expected to jump to 3.4% vs. the prior release of 3.2%. Scrutiny of inflation estimates indicate that the impact of higher energy and food prices is declining, however, the impact of higher import prices is still persistent. Also, recent efforts made by the Japanese administration to increase wages to keep inflation steady at desired levels could have fueled the core CPI. On the United Kingdom front, investors are awaiting the release of the UK’s inflation, which is scheduled for Wednesday. Higher food prices and a shortage of labor have been major drivers for the extremely sticky UK inflation. No doubt, the UK administration has proposed some measures to push individuals to delay their retirement plans. However, sufficient time will be required for efficient execution. This week, the major trigger will be the interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE), which would unleash sheer volatility for the cross. Analysts at ING Global cite that despite encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are easing, the Bank of England will probably opt for one final 25 basis point (bp) hike on Thursday if it can, though that's undoubtedly contingent on what happens in financial markets. Remember that the BoE has set a much lower bar for pausing hikes than the likes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).  

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held i

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held in March. The Australian central bank teased policy doves by announcing a softer rate hike of 0.25% in its latest meeting, which in turn raised expectations that the pivot is in play. The same could be confirmed from the latest comments of the RBA officials and make it important for the policy hawks to step back. As a result, today’s RBA Minutes will be closely observed for the details on the latest decision which raised bearish bets on the AUD/USD as it rises of late. Also important inside the Minutes statement, especially for the AUD/USD pair traders, will be the economic outlook and the central bankers’ optimism towards overcoming the recession fears amid the banking sector fallouts. How could the minutes affect AUD/USD? AUD/USD portrays the market’s pre-event anxiety as it makes rounds to 0.6715-20 after rising in the last three consecutive days. The Aussie pair previously cheered the market’s easing fears of the banking sector collapse, as well as the cautious optimism showed by Christopher Kent, Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial Markets). That said, the Aussie pair’s further upside hinges on how the RBA Minutes manage to keep the bulls happy even after promoting the ability to announce further rate hikes. That being said, talks over the economic transition and neutral rate, as well as surrounding employment conditions, will also be crucial to watch for short-term AUD/USD forecast. Technically, clear upside break of the six-week-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around 0.6635, directs AUD/USD buyers towards the 100-DMA hurdle of near 0.6765. Key Notes AUD/USD floats near two-week high past 0.6700 as fears of banking collapse ease, RBA Minutes eyed  AUD/USD Forecast: Bullish bias, testing the 0.6725 resistance area About the RBA minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

GBP/USD dribbles around six-week high, making rounds to 1.2270-80 during early Tuesday, as banking crisis challenges the Bank of England (BoE) hawks.

GBP/USD seesaws within a choppy range after refreshing six-week high, pauses three-day uptrend.Fears that financial market turmoil can push BoE to pause rate hike gain momentum ahead of “Super Thursday”.DUP appears dissatisfied from Brexit deal, chooses to vote against the same in Wednesday’s poll.GBP/USD dribbles around six-week high, making rounds to 1.2270-80 during early Tuesday, as banking crisis challenges the Bank of England (BoE) hawks. Also testing the Cable pair buyers are the looming fears of another Brexit disappointment, despite UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s hard efforts to strike a deal over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP). The Telegraph conveys multiple analysts’ estimation while saying, “The Bank of England (BoE) will be forced to abandon an interest rate rise this week following turmoil in global financial markets.” The forecasts become too important ahead the “Super Thursday” as some on the floor expected 50 bps rate hike from the “Old Lady”, as the BoE is casually known. On the other hand, the BBC News quotes Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as saying that the agreement was not sufficient to deal with concerns that his party had raised about post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland. “The DUP has confirmed that it will oppose the deal - known as the Windsor Framework - when MPs are given a vote on part of it on Wednesday,” adds the BBC News. Elsewhere, hopes of easing banking crisis seems to have favored the market sentiment and drowned the US Dollar. UBS’ takeover of the troubled Credit Suisse, by paying 3 billion Swiss francs (£2.6bn), eased the market’s baking fears. On the same line were statements from the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) mentioning that the deposits of Signature Bridge Bank will be assumed by a subsidiary of New York Community Bancorporation. Additionally, news that five major banks, including the BoE, joined the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease the US Dollar liquidity crunch via currency swaps and added strength to the market’s risk-on mood. It should be noted, however, that a Senior Swiss lawmaker warned on Monday that “the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is an enormous risk,” which in turn probed the optimists amid the market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to the lowest levels in a month while the US Treasury bond yields stays pressured. Further, Wall Street closed on the positive side where Gold price refreshed Year-To-Date (YTD) high before retreating to $1,980 at the latest. Moving on, Cable traders should keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting and Thursday’s top-tier outcomes from the Bank of England. Technical analysis A successful upside break of the 1.2200 horizontal resistance, now support, enables GBP/USD bulls to keep the reins.  

AUD/JPY trimmed some of its earlier losses and finished Monday’s session with losses of 0.13%. However, as the Asian session begins, the AUD/JPY is up

AUD/JPY jumped from YTD lows of 87.12 and reclaimed 88.00 as sentiment turned upbeat.AUD/JPY Price Analysis: To remain sideways within the 87.00/89.00 range.AUD/JPY trimmed some of its earlier losses and finished Monday’s session with losses of 0.13%. However, as the Asian session begins, the AUD/JPY is up 0.09%, exchanging hands at 88.25 at the time of writing.AUD/JPY Price actionAfter falling to multi-week lows at 87.12, the AUD/JPY staged a late recovery and closed above the 88.00 figure, portraying a spinning top indicating neither buyers nor sellers are in control. Nevertheless, the AUD/JPY is consolidating around the 87.00-89.20 range, below the daily Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with a neutral to a bearish bias. Oscillators remain bearish, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat, suggesting that selling pressure is waning. Contrarily, the Rate of Change (RoC) portrays sellers are gathering momentum, but they need to bring the AUD/JPY below 88.00, so they could have a chance to drag prices lower. Therefore, the AUD/JPY’s first support would be the 88.00 mark. Once cleared, the AUD/JPY could dive towards the daily low at 87.12 before stumbling toward the 86.00 mark, ahead of testing March 2022 lows at around 84.59. Conversely, the AUD/JPY first resistance would be 89.00. Break above will expose the March 20 daily high at 89.23 before testing the 20-day EMA at 89.82. After that, the next supply zone would be the 90.00 figure, followed by the 50-day EMA at 90.66, ahead of 91.00.AUD/JPY Daily chartAUD/JPY Technical levels 

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann on Monday watered down his recent call for three further interest-rate increases of 50 basis p

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann on Monday watered down his recent call for three further interest-rate increases of 50 basis points in quick succession, reported Reuters. The news also quotes the Austrian National Bank leader’s two-week-old interview with German business daily Handelsblatt as he mentioned the ECB should raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings because inflation was proving stubborn. While the first of the expected four rate hikes recently gone, the policymaker was asked in an interview on Austrian national broadcaster ORF TV if he stood by that call given recent turbulence in the banking sector, when ECB’s Holzmann said: "I would not rule them out but I would also not say that they will necessarily come either." ECB’s Holzmann also mentioned that since his Handelsblatt interview liquidity in the financial system had decreased, referring to banking stocks' recent fall on fears of a new banking crisis. "What we are concerned with is fighting inflation," ECB’s Holzmann said, adding that if deflation or an inflation reduction began because of tightening liquidity, the central bank would no longer need to raise rates or could raise them more gradually. Asked if UBS Group's state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse was dangerous because it will create such a big bank in such a small country, Switzerland, he said: "It could become dangerous but it does not have to become dangerous." Elsewhere, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras  spoke on the CNBC while stating that policy will be data dependent from now on. ECB’s Stournaras also said, “European banking system well-equipped with capital.” Also read: EUR/USD juggles above 1.0700, upside looks solid as uncertainty for Fed policy deepens

The NZD/USD pair is making efforts in defending the critical support of 0.6240 in the early Asian session. The Kiwi asset has remained sideways from M

NZD/USD has remained sideways after failing to recapture the immediate resistance of 0.6280.The formation of an Inverted H&S formation solidifies a bullish reversal ahead.The 20-period EMA at 0.6234 is providing a cushion to the New Zealand Dollar. The NZD/USD pair is making efforts in defending the critical support of 0.6240 in the early Asian session. The Kiwi asset has remained sideways from Monday after failing to recapture the immediate resistance of 0.6280. Mixed responses to the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have shifted the major to the sideline. S&P500 futures have continued their upside momentum after a decent recovery on Monday, portraying appreciation in the risk-taking ability of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its losing spell on Monday led by United States banking shakedown. The New Zealand Dollar didn’t display any significant action on steady monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The street was anticipating further rate cuts to spurt the overall demand in the Chinese economy. It is worth noting that New Zealand is one of the crucial trading partners of China and further expansion in PBoC’s monetary policy would have supported the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD is forming an Inverted Head and Shoulder chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The chart pattern displays a prolonged consolidation and results in a bullish reversal after a breakout of the neckline, which is plotted from the March 01 high at 0.6276. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6234 is providing a cushion to the New Zealand Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is making efforts in reclaiming the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same would solidify the Kiwi asset further. A buying opportunity in the Kiwi asset will emerge it will surpass March 1 high at 0.6276, which will drive the pair toward the round-level resistance at 0.6300 followed by February 14 high at 0.6389. In an alternate scenario, a breakdown of the January 6 low at 0.6193 will drag the asset toward November 28 low at 0.6155. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD four-hour chart  

The USD/JPY closely following the short end of the US Treasury (UST) yield curve, as diminishing demand for the US Dollar weighs on the pair. This com

USD/JPY responding to evolving US Treasury yield dynamics amid banking turmoil.Japanese Yen gains ground over US Dollar as a safe haven. Financial crisis reverberation as the Fed navigates uncertain times.  The USD/JPY closely following the short end of the US Treasury (UST) yield curve, as diminishing demand for the US Dollar weighs on the pair. This comes amid speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not pursue aggressive rate hikes as anticipated due to the recent banking turmoil. On Monday, the US dollar weakened as investors responded to UBS' acquisition of its struggling competitor Credit Suisse for CHF 3 billion. Following the global banking crisis, the US Dollar is losing its safe-haven status, while the Japanese Yen has regained there conventional safe-haven status. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month sent shockwaves through the markets, causing a plunge in banking stocks and concerns that central bank monetary tightening could lead to a recession. In response to the ongoing banking crisis, the Fed has opened swap lines to other central banks to provide US Dollar liquidity. This move may contribute to the downward pressure on US Dollar demand. Investors are cautiously watching the Fed's decision on Wednesday's conclusion of a two-day meeting. Before the banking turmoil, many market participants had expected a 50 basis-point (bps) interest rate hike from the Fed at its March meeting.  However, Fed funds futures now indicate a 28.4% probability of the Fed maintaining its overnight rate at 4.5%-4.75%, and a 71.6% likelihood of a 25 basis-point increase, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Citing some earlier Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports, the Fed faces a difficult decision, should they continue raising rates to combat persistent high inflation or pause due to the intense banking crisis? Levels to watch  

Analysts at the S&P think that it is unlikely that some US bank failures will prevent policymakers from sticking to task of taming inflation, reported

Analysts at the S&P think that it is unlikely that some US bank failures will prevent policymakers from sticking to task of taming inflation, reported Reuters during early Tuesday in Asia. More to come

The USD/CAD pair is demonstrating a back-and-forth action around the critical support of 1.3650 in the early Tokyo session. The Loonie asset is expect

USD/CAD is likely to deliver a fresh downside below 1.3650 amid a weaker USD Index and oil price recovery.Led by the declining US inflation, Fed Powell might look for achieving the terminal rate with the least pace.Further softening of Canadian inflation would delight the Bank of Canada.The USD/CAD pair is demonstrating a back-and-forth action around the critical support of 1.3650 in the early Tokyo session. The Loonie asset is expected to deliver a fresh downside as investors are expecting Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell to sound less hawkish on interest rates. Deepening fears of a potential global banking fiasco after the collapse of three United States-based commercial banks and the second-largest Swiss banking firm Credit Suisse are bolstering the case of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed. Apart from that, the dot plot for further rate hikes will be keenly watched. There is no denying the fact that the US inflation is in a declining trend, therefore, Fed Powell might look for achieving the terminal rate with the least pace. S&P500 futures showed a decent recovery on Monday after the mayhem in the last week, portraying a revival in the risk appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has ended in negative straight for the third trading session amid a weak safe-haven appeal due to banking shakedown. Analysts at ING believe “We do not expect too much volatility if conditions allow the Fed to hike 25 bps and the dot plots do not surprise too much and an unlikely 50 bps hike would be very bullish for the Dollar.” Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is expected to remain in action amid the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Economists at TDS Securities cited “We look for CPI to continue trending lower to 5.3% YoY as core measures soften to 4.8%. Base effects will play a large role with prices up 0.5% MoM, but energy prices will also exert a drag. This would leave Q1 CPI tracking slightly below the January MPR, but we would note the evolution of financial sector vulnerabilities will be the larger factor for the near-term Bank of Canada (BoC) outlook.” On the oil front, oil price showed significant recovery after a fresh 15-month low at $64.32 on expectations that OPEC could intervene amid falling prices. The black gold has recovered to near $67.70 and is eyeing the interest rate decision by the Fed for further guidance. 

AUD/NZD extends the previous day’s strong gains to 1.0760 amid mixed New Zealand trade data, published early Tuesday in Auckland. In doing so, the exo

AUD/NZD picks up bids to cross three-week-old resistance line despite mixed New Zealand trade numbers for February.New Zealand Trade Balance improved but Exports and Imports eased.“Double bottom” bullish formation lures buyers but 1.0800 is the key hurdle.AUD/NZD extends the previous day’s strong gains to 1.0760 amid mixed New Zealand trade data, published early Tuesday in Auckland. In doing so, the exotic pair crosses a three-week-old resistance line while highlighting the “double bottom” bullish chart pattern on the four-hour play. That said, New Zealand’s Trade Balance improved to $-714M in February versus $-1,450M expected and $-2,113M prior (revised). However, the Imports eased to $5.95B from $7.42B while the Exports also declined to $5.23B compared to $5.30B prior during the stated period. Given the double bottom formation and the quote’s sustained break of the previous key resistance line, the AUD/NZD is very much expected to rise further, backed by bullish MACD signals. However, a one-week-old resistance line joins the 100-SMA to highlight the importance of the 1.0800 as the strong upside resistance. Should the quote remains firmer past 1.0800, the odds of witnessing a rally toward the early-month high close to 1.0890 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support line of near 1.0750 restricts the immediate downside of the AUD/NZD pair, a break of which could drag the quote back to the 1.0700 round figure before challenging the double bottoms surrounding 1.0675. AUD/NZD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, advanced 2.31% on Monday, bolstered by a soft US Dollar (USD) and market sentiment impro

Western Texas Intermediate registers minimal losses at the beginning of the Asian session.Weakness in the US Dollar, and an upbeat sentiment, caused WTI’s jump.Two major central banks hosting monetary policy decisions could turn sentiment sour and drag oil prices down.Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, advanced 2.31% on Monday, bolstered by a soft US Dollar (USD) and market sentiment improvement. As Tuesday’s Asian session begins, WTI exchanges hands at $67.68 PB.Oil prices advanced on an offered US DollarWall Street’s finished the session with gains spurred by risk appetite. Oil price was underpinned by an offered US Dollar, as shown by the US Dollar Index, down 0.54%, at 103.305. Nevertheless, the sentiment would remain fragile ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rates decision. Any hawkish tilt by central banks could derail traders’ mood and sour sentiment. In the meantime, the G7 commented that it’s not expected an adjustment to Russia’s oil barrel level at $60.00 this week, as reported by Reuters. The G7 had planned to reconsider the price limit implemented in December. Still, the officials mentioned that the European Commission informed EU ambassadors over the weekend that there is currently no interest among the G7 to conduct a prompt reassessment. This was supposed to take place in mid-March. OPEC, Russia, and other producer allies (OPEC+) will hold a ministerial committee meeting on April 3. As per the agreement made in October, the group had decided to reduce their oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.WTI Technical levels 

AUD/USD portrays the market’s cautious optimism, as well as cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as it seesaws near the highest levels in two weeks dur

AUD/USD seesaws around multi-day high as bulls take a breather after three-day winning streak.UBS-Credit Suisse deal, joint central bank efforts to tame liquidity crunch improve market’s mood.Yields remain depressed while Gold and equities improve, which in turn weigh on US Dollar.RBA’s Kent praised soundness of Aussie banks, defends rate hike bias.AUD/USD portrays the market’s cautious optimism, as well as cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as it seesaws near the highest levels in two weeks during early Tuesday morning in Canberra. That said, the Aussie pair makes rounds to 0.6715-20 after rising in the last three consecutive day. The Aussie pair’s latest gains could be linked to the market’s easing fears of the banking sector collapse, as well as the cautious optimism showed by Christopher Kent, Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial Markets). Adding to the quote’s upside momentum could be the upbeat performance of Gold and softer Treasury bond yields, which in turn exerted downside pressure on the US Dollar. That said, RBA’s Kent spoke speech on "Long and Variable Monetary Policy Lags" at the KangaNews Debt Capital Market Summit, in Sydney, early Monday morning, while saying that the Australian banks are unquestionably strong. The policymaker also said that RBA is very conscious of the challenges facing borrowers from rapid rate rises. Elsewhere, news of the UBS’ takeover of the troubled Credit Suisse, by paying 3 billion Swiss francs (£2.6bn), also eased the market’s fears. On the same line were statements from the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as it mentioned that the deposits of Signature Bridge Bank will be assumed by a subsidiary of New York Community Bancorporation. Furthermore, around five major banks joined the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease the US Dollar liquidity crunch via currency swaps and added strength to the market’s risk-on mood. “The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Swiss National Bank are all up for announcing joint actions to provide more liquidity via standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements,” said Reuters. It should be noted, however, that a Senior Swiss lawmaker warned on Monday that “the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is an enormous risk,” which in turn probed the optimists amid market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to the lowest levels in a month while the US Treasury bond yields stays pressured. Further, Wall Street closed on a positive side where Gold price refreshed Year-To-Date (YTD) high before retreating to $1,980 at the latest. To sum up, the AUD/USD buyers are likely to keep the reins amid the firmer sentiment and the hawkish RBA talks. However, today’s RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be crucial to watch as the bulls may want to reconfirm policymaker Kent’s hawkish bias. That said, the Aussie central bank announced 0.25% rate hike in the last meeting and appeared a bit tensed over the future rate increased. Technical analysis A clear upside break of the six-week-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around 0.6635, directs AUD/USD buyers towards the 100-DMA hurdle of near 0.6765.  

The EUR/USD pair is displaying a sideways performance around 1.0720 in the early Asian session. The major currency asset is expected to extend its jou

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.0720, eyes 1.0750 amid a recovery in investors’ risk appetite.Fed could pause further rate hikes to restore confidence among the market participants.ECB Lagarde confirms that Eurozone banks' exposure to Credit Suisse was in Euro millions, not billions.The EUR/USD pair is displaying a sideways performance around 1.0720 in the early Asian session. The major currency asset is expected to extend its journey toward the critical resistance of 1.0750 ahead. The shared currency pair has registered a three-day winning streak and is expected to extend further as investors are skeptical about the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is scheduled for Wednesday. A late recovery in S&P500 allowed it to settle Monday’s session on a decent positive note. It seems that investors cheered the collaborative efforts made by various financial institutions to rescue the First Republic after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. The recovery move by United States equities is portraying a decent attempt for bulls to settle their feet. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to settle on a negative note consecutively for the third time as investors are still ambiguous about Fed’s monetary policy. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 76% odds are in favor of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike, which would push rates to 4.75-5.00%. However, the efforts by various central banks to safeguard the global economy from potential banking turmoil indicate that Fed chair Jerome Powell could pause further rate hikes to restore confidence among the market participants. The discussions over the interest rate guidance could soften the US Dollar for a longer period. Economists at Scotiabank believe that the US Dollar could weaken if the market believes that the Fed is near to end of its tightening cycle. On the Eurozone front, positive commentaries from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers fueled strength in the Euro. ECB Lagaqrde told European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Monday that Eurozone banks' exposure to Credit Suisse was in Euro millions, not billions, per Reuters.  

The Gold price is carving out a topping pattern below the highs of the $2,000s that were scored at the start of this week. At the time of writing, Gol

Gold price is meeting resistance in the right-hand shoulder. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. The Gold price is carving out a topping pattern below the highs of the $2,000s that were scored at the start of this week. At the time of writing, Gold price is trading near $1,979 and has traveled between $2,009.85 and $1,965.99 so far this week for the initial balance.  Fundamentally, bank stocks are a driving force that rallied on Monday with a tentative sigh of relief due to the rescue of Credit Suisse with UBS buying the troubled bank for 3 billion francs ($3.2 billion). The speedy measure to stem contagion, however, does not guarantee anything and some argue that was has occurred is just the tip of the iceberg.  For instance, shares in First Republic Bank, the lender drawing the most concern from US investors right now cratered 33.5% on Wall Street on Monday following S&P Global downgrading its credit ratings deeper into junk on Sunday. "If you think about where we were a year ago, the Fed was just starting its rate-hiking cycle. So over the next couple of quarters, you're going to get those long and variable, cumulative and lagged impacts hitting the market further," Bob Michele, the global head and CIO of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. "So I think this is the tip of the iceberg. I think there's a lot more consolidation, a lot more pain yet to come." It’s also possible that “we just go from one weak institution falling over to the next,” said Vicky Redwood, senior economic adviser at Capital Economics. There are no other obvious candidates that could be singled out like Credit Suisse, but it’s “hard to predict where the problems will emerge,” she explained. All eyes on the Fed Meanwhile, the Gold price will be sensitive to the US Dollar and the Federal Reserve this week. Fed funds futures show a 26.9% probability of the Fed holding its overnight rate at a current 4.5%-4.75% when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday. Consequently, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes to was at its highest in 3.50% compared with its US close of 3.397% on Friday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.00% compared with Friday's close of 3.846%. ´´Despite banking regulators rushing to shore up market confidence, the uncertain macro backdrop continues to entice buying. Bullion-backed ETF saw strong inflows, with SPDR Gold Share’s holding increasing by more than 204kz last session,´´ analysts at ANZ bank explained. ´´Swaps traders remain split on whether the US Federal Reserve will hike again this year. All eyes now shift to the Fed’s two-day meeting. Any dovish commentary should help support the precious metals sector.´´ Gold technical analysis The Gold price could be forming a topping pattern in the right-hand shoulder of the head and shoulders on the 4 and 1-hour charts:
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