Forex News Timeline

Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday that they still have some work to do on inflation persistence, as reported by Reuters. Key takeaways "UK labour market remains pretty tight by historical standards." "Pay growth data is consistent with small decline in Q1." "Rates of pay growth remain quite well above what would be consistent for meeting 2% inflation target sustainably." "We need to keep a restrictive stance on monetary policy that continues to bear down on domestic inflation persistence." "Not unreasonable to believe that over summer we will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts." Market reactionGBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure following these comments and was last seen losing 0.22% on the day at 1.2530.

FX option expiries for May 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0650 1.9b 1.0665 563m 1.0675 704m 1.0690 810m 1.0695 416m 1.0750 1.5b 1.0760 409m 1.0800 1.5b 1.0850 1.2b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2495 919m 1.2500 1.1b 1.2525 680m 1.2650 726m 1.2655 1.1b - USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.9000 521m 0.9100 1.9b - USD/JPY: USD amounts        155.15 602m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6515 1.8b 0.6590 2.2b 0.6600 577m 0.6700 648m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3700 735m1.3755 579m

Silver price appreciates due to escalated tensions in the Middle East on Tuesday.Israeli troops have advanced into the northern region of Gaza in an attempt to retake territory from Hamas militants.Fed officials indicated maintaining higher rates for longer, which may undermine the non-yielding assets like Silver.Silver price extends its gains for the second consecutive session, trading around $28.30 per troy ounce during the early European session on Tuesday. The increase in the value of the safe-haven Silver can be attributed to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Israeli forces have advanced significantly into the northern part of Gaza in an effort to reclaim territory from Hamas fighters. The Silver price was bolstered after the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims released on Thursday, which surged to a near eight-month high at 231,000. This signaled a weakening labor market and potentially provided the Federal Reserve (Fed) with room to commence its easing cycle sooner rather than later. However, Fed officials emphasized the importance of maintaining higher rates for longer given the elevated inflation. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated this stance on Monday, advocating for keeping current interest rates until signs of inflation easing emerge. Higher interest rates typically dampen the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as Silver. Later in the day, traders will likely monitor the US Producer Price Index (PPI), a crucial economic indicator. The PPI report could have a significant impact on the US market. Traders might utilize the PPI data to gauge the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the PPI data surpasses expectations, it could reinforce the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed's commitment to maintaining higher rates for an extended period. This could potentially exert pressure on Silver prices. XAG/USD Overview Today last price 28.35 Today Daily Change 0.15 Today Daily Change % 0.53 Today daily open 28.2   Trends Daily SMA20 27.48 Daily SMA50 26.39 Daily SMA100 24.67 Daily SMA200 23.94   Levels Previous Daily High 28.39 Previous Daily Low 27.97 Previous Weekly High 28.77 Previous Weekly Low 26.44 Previous Monthly High 29.8 Previous Monthly Low 24.75 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 28.23 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 28.13 Daily Pivot Point S1 27.98 Daily Pivot Point S2 27.77 Daily Pivot Point S3 27.56 Daily Pivot Point R1 28.4 Daily Pivot Point R2 28.61 Daily Pivot Point R3 28.82    

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USD/MXN is exchanging hands at 16.80, EUR/MXN at 18.12 and GBP/MXN at 21.10, at the time of publication.  Mexican Peso loses upside momentum on geopolitical concerns The Mexican Peso lost ground on Monday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned global economic growth might lose momentum due to a fragmentation of international trade along geopolitical lines.  In a speech at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath, said: “Countries are reevaluating their trading partners based on economic and national security concerns,” adding that if the trend continued, “we could see a broad retreat from global rules of engagement and, with it, a significant reversal of the gains from economic integration.” The news comes after the US plans to impose further protectionist policies by quadrupling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and BRICS countries continued to erode the hegemony of the US Dollar.  At the start of May, India and Nigeria, for example, agreed to settle all their trade using their domestic currencies rather than the US Dollar. This follows similar agreements between other nations, especially China, Russia and Iran, designed to circumvent Western sanctions.  USD/MXN recovers on elevated US inflation expectations The US Dollar gained in most pairs, including versus the Mexican Peso, after data from the Reserve Bank of New York showed a rise in inflation expectations which reinforced the inflationary outlook presented in Friday’s Michigan sentiment survey.  The NY Survey of Consumer Expectations showed consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead increased to 3.3% in April, from 3.0% in March – and the three previous months. It was the highest level since November and stands well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target.  The data further reduces the chance of the Fed moving to cut interest rates in the near future, which is positive for the USD since an expectation of higher interest rates increases foreign capital inflows.  Technical Analysis: USD/MXN pulls back in a downtrend  USD/MXN – the value of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos –  has pulled back after decisively breaking below the bottom of a short-term range last week.  The breakout of the range was a decisive technical development that suggests a protracted move lower. However, after falling to a new low of 16.72 on Friday, USD/MXN reversed and started recovering. USD/MXN 4-hour Chart The recovery is not yet strong enough to negate the bearish implications of the breakdown from the range. The short-term trend is still probably bearish, which, given the old adage that the “trend is your friend”, suggests the odds continue favoring more downside.  The pair is still probably likely to resume its downtrend and hit the conservative target for the breakout at 16.54. This is the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range extrapolated lower. Further bearishness after that could reach 16.34, the full height of the range extrapolated lower.  A break below 16.72 would confirm a continuation south.  Given the medium and long-term trends are bearish, the odds further favor more downside for the pair in line with those trends. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms'risk-on' and 'risk-off' mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-on'? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-off'? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.  

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The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that labor market has witnessed a drawdown for the third time in a row while wage growth momentum remains steady at relatively high levels. UK employers laid off 177K workers, which was higher than the firing of 156K employees in the December-February period. The ILO Unemployment Rate rises to 4.3% as expected from the former reading of 4.2%. The labor market data clearly indicates that the economy is struggling to bear the consequences of higher interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE). In the current scenario, the situation seems favorable for the BoE to begin reducing interest rates, as price pressures are also consistently softening. However, strong wage growth that is feeding service inflation will continue to remain a major concern for BoE policymakers. Annual Average Earnings (both excluding and including bonuses) grew steadily by 6.0% and 5.7%, respectively, for the three months to March period. Investors anticipated Average Earnings, including bonuses, to decelerate to 5.3%. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling consolidates as traders reassess BoE rate-cut hopes after UK Employment report The Pound Sterling ranges around 1.2560 against the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, rebounded after discovering buying interest near the weekly low at around 105.00. However, it has turned sideways, around 105.20, as investors await the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Annual headline PPI is forecasted to have grown by 2.2% from 2.1% in March. In the same period, the core PPI, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to have grown by 2.4%, at the same pace as the previous month. Economists anticipate that monthly headline PPI rose at a higher pace of 0.3% from the prior reading of 0.2% with core reading growing steadily by 0.2%. This week, the US economic calendar is filled with top-tier data. The next move in the US Dollar will be majorly driven by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for April, which will be published on Wednesday. The consumer inflation data will influence speculation about the Federal Reserve (Fed) returning to policy normalisation from the September meeting. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains well-supported above 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling exhibits strength near 1.2560 due to a strong near-term outlook. The GBP/USD pair remains comfortably established above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2530. The pair has retraced 38.2% losses recorded from a 10-month high around 1.2900.The Cable continues to face pressure near the neckline of the Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern formed on a daily timeframe. On April 12, the pair fell sharply after breaking below the neckline of the H&S pattern plotted from December 8 low around 1.2500. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

EUR/GBP weakens to 0.8590 following the UK employment data on Tuesday. The UK Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2%, as expected. The markets are largely pricing in the ECB rate cut as early as next month, with two possible further cuts this year.The EUR/GBP cross trades on a softer note near 0.8590 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The cross faces rejection after retracing from its nearly 0.8600 psychological level due to mixed UK employment data. The attention will shift to the ZEW Survey from the Eurozone and Germany, along with the ECB's Schnabel speech later in the day. 

The latest data from the UK Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2% in the previous reading, in line with the market consensus of 4.3%. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 8.9K in April from a decline of 2.4K in March. The UK Employment Change came in at -177K in the three months to March, versus a -156K decrease in the previous reading. However, these reports had little to no market reaction to the Pound Sterling (GBP).

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold at a record high at its meeting last month, as widely expected. The ECB policymakers hinted that a June rate cut was much in consideration as inflation measures continued to decline and wage growth eased. Investors will take more cues from the advanced Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1, due on Wednesday about the economic outlook. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this might weigh on the Euro (EUR) and drag the EUR/GBP cross lower.  EUR/GBP Overview Today last price 0.859 Today Daily Change -0.0001 Today Daily Change % -0.01 Today daily open 0.8591   Trends Daily SMA20 0.8578 Daily SMA50 0.8564 Daily SMA100 0.8569 Daily SMA200 0.8605   Levels Previous Daily High 0.8609 Previous Daily Low 0.859 Previous Weekly High 0.8621 Previous Weekly Low 0.8557 Previous Monthly High 0.8645 Previous Monthly Low 0.8521 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8597 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8602 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8585 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8579 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8567 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8603 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8615 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8621    

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 14: The action in foreign exchange markets remain quiet following Monday's subdued trading. The US Dollar (USD) Index continues to fluctuate in a tight channel above as investors await producer inflation data for April and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. Earlier in the day, the European economic docket will feature ZEW Survey results for Germany and the Euro area. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield ended the first trading day of the week flat and main equity indexes closed little changed. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in April following the 0.2% increase recorded in March. In the early American session, Chairman Powell will appear at a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Foreign Bankers' Association's Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.13% 0.23% -0.44% -0.07% -0.05% -0.15% -0.24% EUR -0.13%   0.15% -0.56% -0.17% -0.15% -0.26% -0.36% GBP -0.23% -0.15%   -0.63% -0.33% -0.30% -0.41% -0.51% JPY 0.44% 0.56% 0.63%   0.39% 0.35% 0.34% 0.16% CAD 0.07% 0.17% 0.33% -0.39%   -0.01% -0.07% -0.10% AUD 0.05% 0.15% 0.30% -0.35% 0.00%   -0.01% -0.21% NZD 0.15% 0.26% 0.41% -0.34% 0.07% 0.00%   -0.10% CHF 0.24% 0.36% 0.51% -0.16% 0.10% 0.21% 0.10%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).EUR/USD climbed above 1.0800 on Monday but erased a small portion of its daily gains in the American session to close below this level. Early Tuesday, the pair fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.0780.USD/JPY rose 0.3% on Monday and continued to push higher toward 156.50 early Tuesday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki repeated on Tuesday that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals. He added that they will closely monitor the foreign exchange moves. Earlier in the day, the data from Japan showed that the PPI rose 0.9% on a yearly basis in April, matching the market expectation and March's increase. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Japan's commitment to allowing the Japanese Yen (JPY) to move flexibly would let the Bank of Japan (BoJ) focus on achieving price stability and warned against the call by certain experts to use monetary policy to limit the currency's depreciation, as reported by Reuters. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2% as expected. The Claimant Count Change rose 8.9K, while the Employment Change was down 177K in April. Additionally, Average Earnings Excluding Bonus rose 6% (YoY) in the three months to March, while Average Earnings Including Bonus were up 5.7% (YoY) in the same period. GBP/USD showed no immediate reaction to these data and was last seen moving up and down in a narrow band at around 1.2550.Gold staged a downward correction and lost about 1% on Monday. XAU/USD edged higher early Tuesday but remains below $2,350. Economic Indicator Fed's Chair Powell speechJerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018. Read more. Next release: Tue May 14, 2024 14:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: -Previous: -Source: Federal Reserve  

The Unemployment Rate in the UK edged higher to 4.3%.GBP/USD continues to trade in a tight range at around 1.2550.The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2%. This reading matched the market expectation. Other details of the job report showed that the Claimant Count Change rose 8.9K, while the Employment Change was down 177K in April. Additionally, Average Earnings Excluding Bonus rose 6% (YoY) in the three months to March while Average Earnings Including Bonus were up 5.7% (YoY) in the same period. Market reaction These figures failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in GBP/USD and the pair was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day slightly above 1.2550.

USD/CHF appreciates as the Fed is expected to maintain higher interest rates for longer.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has advocated for keeping rates higher until signs of inflation easing become clear.The Swiss Franc may encounter selling pressure as the SNB intensifies its focus on combating inflation.USD/CHF continues to gain ground for the third successive session, trading around 0.9090 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to cautious statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, emphasizing the importance of maintaining higher rates for longer given the elevated inflation. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated this stance on Monday, advocating for keeping current interest rates until signs of inflation easing emerge. On Tuesday, traders will likely watch the US Producer Price Index (PPI), a pivotal economic indicator. The PPI report could significantly impact the US market. Traders may use the PPI data to assess the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the PPI data exceeds expectations, it could further strengthen the US Dollar. On the Swiss front, SECO Consumer Climate (YoY) experienced a slight decline in April, with a reading of -38.1. However, it still significantly trailed the long-term average. On Tuesday, Producer and Import Prices data for April is due, an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland. The Swiss Franc may struggle as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has redirected its attention from deliberately strengthening the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the central bank intensifies its focus on combating inflation. Last week, the SNB saw its foreign exchange reserves climb to CHF 720 billion in April, marking the fifth consecutive increase. USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.9087 Today Daily Change 0.0004 Today Daily Change % 0.04 Today daily open 0.9083   Trends Daily SMA20 0.9109 Daily SMA50 0.9017 Daily SMA100 0.8839 Daily SMA200 0.8868   Levels Previous Daily High 0.9088 Previous Daily Low 0.9046 Previous Weekly High 0.9099 Previous Weekly Low 0.9036 Previous Monthly High 0.9195 Previous Monthly Low 0.8998 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9072 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9062 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.9056 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.903 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.9014 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9098 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9114 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.914    

NZD/USD attracts some sellers around 0.6015 in Tuesday’s early European session. The Fed's Jefferson was the latest policymaker to call for holding rates at current levels until inflation shows more signs of easing.New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations dropped from 2.50% in Q1 to 2.33% in Q2 of 2024. The NZD/USD pair extends its downside near 0.6015 during the early European session on Tuesday. The downtick of the pair is backed by the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly. Traders turn to a cautious mood ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day. 

Fed policymakers emphasized the need to hold the rate for longer amid stubborn inflation in the US. On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson called for holding rates at current levels until inflation shows more signs of easing, and he will monitor more evidence to make sure that inflation is going to return to the 2% target. 

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the need for prolonged restrictive policy to achieve the Fed's inflation targets. Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari noted that he is in “wait and see mode” about future monetary policy. These hawkish remarks have boosted the Greenback broadly and created a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

On the Kiwi front,  the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) showed on Monday that New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations dropped from 2.50% in Q1 2024 to 2.33% in Q2 of this year, while the average one-year inflation expectations eased to 2.73% in Q2 vs. 3.22% seen in the first quarter of 2024. The falling inflation expectations exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).  NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6014 Today Daily Change -0.0003 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 0.6017   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5956 Daily SMA50 0.601 Daily SMA100 0.6087 Daily SMA200 0.6038   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6032 Previous Daily Low 0.6 Previous Weekly High 0.6041 Previous Weekly Low 0.598 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6012 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.602 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5984 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5968 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6032 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6048 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6064    

GBP/USD holds its position around the major level of 1.2550 due to improved risk sentiment.Unemployment Rate (3M) is expected to show an increase in unemployed workers.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has advocated for maintaining current interest rates until signs of inflation easing become apparent.GBP/USD hovers around 1.2560 during the Asian session on Tuesday following the improved risk appetite. The Pound Sterling (GBP) received support from higher-than-anticipated UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released on Friday. The UK economy expanded by 0.6% in Q1, surpassing expectations and signaling the end of the country's brief recession. This robust economic rebound represents the strongest growth seen in over two years. Market participants are now turning their attention to employment data expected later in the day. There are anticipations of an increase in the number of individuals claiming jobless benefits in April, as indicated by the UK Claimant Count Change. Additionally, the ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) is expected to show a rise in the number of unemployed workers in the UK.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, advances due to cautious statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. They emphasize the importance of maintaining higher rates for an extended period given the elevated inflation. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated this stance on Monday, advocating for keeping current interest rates until signs of inflation easing emerge. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a consumer sentiment survey, suggesting that US consumers foresee a widespread acceleration in inflation over the next year. Expectations have risen to 3.3%, up from the 3.0% figure reported in March for consumer one-year inflation expectations. Investors are closely watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, a pivotal economic indicator. The PPI report could significantly impact the market, serving as a catalyst. Traders may use the PPI data to assess the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the PPI data exceeds expectations, it could further strengthen the US Dollar. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2556 Today Daily Change -0.0003 Today Daily Change % -0.02 Today daily open 1.2559   Trends Daily SMA20 1.249 Daily SMA50 1.2597 Daily SMA100 1.2636 Daily SMA200 1.2542   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2569 Previous Daily Low 1.2518 Previous Weekly High 1.2594 Previous Weekly Low 1.2446 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2549 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2537 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2528 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2497 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2477 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2579 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.26 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2631    

WTI Oil price remains firmer due to uncertainties surrounding Oil supply amid wildfires in Canada.The WTI price may face challenges as Fed officials have suggested that interest rates may stay higher for longer.The Oil supply could be affected as Iraq has committed to the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by OPEC.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price trades around $79.50 per barrel during Tuesday's Asian session. These gains in Oil prices could be attributed to uncertainties surrounding crude Oil supply amid wildfires in remote western Canada. Concerns arose regarding the country's production capacity of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd). Firefighters on Monday were in a race against time to contain blazes in British Columbia and Alberta, which are situated close to the heart of the country's Oil sands industry. The Oil supply could also be affected as Hayan Abdul Ghani, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil of Iraq, reiterated Iraq's dedication to the voluntary Oil production cuts agreed upon by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Reuters cited Iraqi state news agency. In the United States (US), Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have suggested that interest rates may stay elevated for a prolonged duration, a move that could potentially impact economic growth and diminish Oil demand in the United States (US), the world's largest Oil consumer. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed this sentiment on Monday, advocating for the retention of current interest rates until signs of inflation easing become more apparent. On Tuesday, investors are anticipating the release of the OPEC Monthly Market Report (MOMR), which delves into significant factors influencing the global Oil market and offers insights into crude Oil market trends for the upcoming year. Additionally, attention will be on the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, which will provide comprehensive data on total US and regional refinery operations and the production of major petroleum products. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 78.78 Today Daily Change 0.02 Today Daily Change % 0.03 Today daily open 78.76   Trends Daily SMA20 80.82 Daily SMA50 81.51 Daily SMA100 78.23 Daily SMA200 79.74   Levels Previous Daily High 79.06 Previous Daily Low 77.41 Previous Weekly High 79.56 Previous Weekly Low 76.71 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 78.43 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 78.04 Daily Pivot Point S1 77.76 Daily Pivot Point S2 76.76 Daily Pivot Point S3 76.11 Daily Pivot Point R1 79.41 Daily Pivot Point R2 80.06 Daily Pivot Point R3 81.06    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price trades on a stronger note on Tuesday. Any signs of sticky inflation might further diminish expectations of US interest rate cuts this year, pressuring yellow metal. The US PPI report for April and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. The gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds despite the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The upside of yellow metal might be limited as traders might wait on the sidelines ahead of key US inflation data this week. The higher-for-longer US rate mantra has exerted some selling pressure on the XAU/USD in recent sessions. However, the safe-haven flows due to escalating Middle East tensions might boost the gold price for the time being. Investors will closely watch the key US economic data this week. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is due on Tuesday, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. The attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Wednesday. These reports could offer insights into the timing of the Fed's initial rate adjustment. The hotter-than-expected inflation figures might dampen the prospect of a Fed rate cut, weighing on the precious metal. Higher interest rates may reduce overall investment demand for gold as they increase the opportunity cost associated with holding gold. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price holds positive ground, all eyes are on the crucial US key inflation data Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson called for holding interest rates at current levels until inflation shows more signs of easing, adding that he will continue to look for additional evidence that inflation is going to return to the 2% target.  The Fed is likely to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) in September, said 70 of 108 economists, while cutting rates by 50 bps in 2024, said 65 of 108 economists, according to the Reuters poll.  On Monday, Israeli soldiers moved deep into the ruins of Gaza's northern frontier to retake an area from Hamas rebels, while tanks and troops pushed a highway into Rafah, forcing Palestinian residents to flee, per Reuters.  The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is expected to show an increase of 2.2% YoY, while the Core PPI figure is estimated to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in the same period.  The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is forecast to ease to 3.4% YoY in April from 3.5% prior. Core CPI inflation is projected to drop to 3.6% YoY in April from 3.8% in March.  Technical Analysis: Gold price maintains a positive outlook The gold price edges higher on the day. The yellow metal keeps the bullish vibe unchanged as XAU/USD remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is in the bullish zone at 52.70, indicating the support level is likely to hold rather than break. 

A high of May 10 at $2,378 acts as an immediate resistance level for the precious metal. Extended gains will pave the way to the $2,400 psychological level. A break above this level will see a rally to an all-time high near $2,432, en route to the $2,500 round figure. 

On the other hand, the crucial support level will emerge around the $2,325–$2,340 zone, portraying the confluence of the resistance-turned-support level and the 100-period EMA. The breach of this level will expose a low of May 2 at $2,281.  US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.06% 0.05% 0.12% 0.14% 0.13% 0.15% 0.06%EUR-0.07%   0.00% 0.05% 0.06% 0.08% 0.09% 0.01%GBP-0.05% 0.02%   0.08% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11% 0.02%CAD-0.12% -0.05% -0.08%   0.02% 0.02% 0.03% -0.05%AUD-0.15% -0.06% -0.09% 0.00%   0.01% 0.00% -0.05%JPY-0.13% -0.07% -0.10% -0.02% 0.00%   -0.01% -0.07%NZD-0.13% -0.03% -0.07% -0.03% 0.00% 0.02%   -0.05%CHF-0.09% -0.01% -0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.07% 0.08%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

EUR/USD could test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle.Breaking above the upper boundary could potentially shift momentum toward a bullish trend.A breach below the 14-day EMA at 1.0752 could prompt the pair to test the psychological threshold of 1.0700.EUR/USD has recovered its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.0780 during the Asian session on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, analysis indicates a sideways trend for the pair as it continues to lie within the symmetrical triangle. A surpassing of the upper boundary could shift the momentum toward a bullish trend. However, the momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates an upward momentum for the EUR/USD pair. While it is positioned above the centerline, there is a divergence observed above the signal line. If the signal line crosses over the centerline, it would reinforce the bullish sentiment. The EUR/USD pair faces an immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle aligned with the psychological level of 1.0800. A break above this level could support the pair to test April’s high of 1.0885. On the downside, key support for the EUR/USD pair is anticipated around the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0752. A break below the latter could lead the pair to navigate the region around the psychological threshold of 1.0700, coinciding with the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around the level of 1.0690. Further support levels may emerge around April’s low at 1.0601. EUR/USD: Daily ChartEUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0785 Today Daily Change -0.0005 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 1.079   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0714 Daily SMA50 1.0787 Daily SMA100 1.0828 Daily SMA200 1.0791   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0807 Previous Daily Low 1.0766 Previous Weekly High 1.0791 Previous Weekly Low 1.0724 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0791 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0782 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0768 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0747 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0727 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0809 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0828 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.085    

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Treasurer Jim Chalmers hinted at positive developments during Sunday morning television interviews, suggesting that the upcoming budget could show a faster decline in inflation than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had predicted, as reported by The Guardian. The Australian Dollar received pressure following the RBA's less hawkish stance after opting to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% last week. Speculation had been rife in the markets that the central bank might lean toward a more hawkish position, spurred by recent inflation data surpassing expectations.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, highlighting the necessity of maintaining higher rates for an extended period as inflation remains elevated. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed this sentiment on Monday, advocating for the retention of current interest rates until signs of inflation easing become more apparent. On Tuesday, investors are expected to closely monitor the crucial economic indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could serve as a significant market catalyst. Traders may utilize the PPI report to gauge the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and if the data turns out to be higher than expected, it could further bolster the US Dollar. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar edges lower due to a dovish RBA National Australia Bank's Business Conditions fell to 7 in April, from the previous reading of 9. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank's Business Confidence stood at the reading of 1. Australia's Treasury announced on Sunday that they forecasted that inflation could re-enter the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range by the end of 2024. In their December outlook, officials predicted that CPI inflation would decrease to 3.75% by mid-2024 and 2.75% by mid-2025, aligning it with the RBA's target range. Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a consumer sentiment survey, indicating that US consumers anticipate a broad acceleration in inflation over the next year, with expectations reaching 3.3%. This marks an increase from the 3.0% figure reported in March for consumer one-year inflation expectations. According to Reuters, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed), expressed caution regarding the level of restrictiveness in monetary policy. On Friday, Kashkari stated in an interview with CNBC that while the threshold for another rate hike is high, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the necessity of maintaining a prolonged restrictive policy to attain the Federal Reserve's inflation objectives. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, dropped to 67.4 in May from April's 77.2, marking a six-month low and falling short of market expectations of 76 reading. Meanwhile, the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation rose to 3.1%, a six-month high, up from 3.0% prior. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has revised down its forecasts for the Australian Dollar at the end of 2024 is 0.69, down from 0.71 previously. CBA cites factors such as the interest rate gap and elevated US Treasury bond yields, which are bolstering the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on high inflation and its reluctance to implement rate cuts further support the US Dollar, as reported on forexlive.com. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar maintains its position near the major level of 0.6600 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6600 on Monday. The AUD/USD pair consolidates within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bullish inclination as it remains above the 50 level. Potential movements indicate that the AUD/USD pair may challenge the upper boundary near the swing area at 0.6650. A breakthrough above this level could lead to a retest of March's high at 0.6667, with further upward momentum possibly targeting the psychological threshold of 0.6700. Conversely, immediate support is foreseen around the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6569. If the pair breaches below this EMA, it might face additional selling pressure, potentially descending towards the region around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, approximately at 0.6465. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.05% 0.03% 0.07% 0.09% 0.10% 0.13% 0.02%EUR-0.06%   -0.02% 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.09% -0.01%GBP-0.03% 0.02%   0.04% 0.09% 0.08% 0.11% 0.01%CAD-0.07% -0.03% -0.06%   0.04% 0.04% 0.06% -0.03%AUD-0.13% -0.07% -0.08% -0.04%   0.00% 0.02% -0.08%JPY-0.10% -0.05% -0.08% -0.04% -0.01%   0.02% -0.07%NZD-0.13% -0.06% -0.08% -0.06% -0.02% -0.01%   -0.09%CHF-0.05% 0.00% -0.01% 0.03% 0.07% 0.07% 0.09%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

USD/CAD holds positive ground near 1.3675 on Tuesday.Fed officials said in recent comments that the high-for-longer interest rate narrative is needed to bring down inflation.The lower crude oil price weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). The USD/CAD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.3675 during the Asian session on Tuesday. Amid the light week in terms of Canadian economic data, investors will keep an eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. 

Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials stated in recent weeks that the current level of interest rate should be held higher for longer to bring down inflation. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that an interest rate hike was “unlikely,” but he did not fully rule it out. Powell emphasized the need to take more time to gain “greater confidence” that inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target.  Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that there are upside risks to inflation, adding that it is too soon to cut interest rates. The high-for-longer US rate narrative is likely to underpin the Greenback and create a tailwind for USD/CAD for the time being. 

On the other hand, the decline in crude oil price continues to drag the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) lower, as Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States. Nonetheless, the upbeat Canadian employment market data for April might convince the Bank of Canada (BoC) to wait longer t to ensure that inflation will be sustained. This, in turn, might cap the downside of the CAD. 

  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3676 Today Daily Change 0.0010 Today Daily Change % 0.07 Today daily open 1.3666   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3709 Daily SMA50 1.3624 Daily SMA100 1.3533 Daily SMA200 1.3565   Levels Previous Daily High 1.369 Previous Daily Low 1.3661 Previous Weekly High 1.3763 Previous Weekly Low 1.3618 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3672 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3679 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3655 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3643 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3626 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3684 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3701 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3713  
 

 

 

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1053 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1030 and 7.2307 Reuters estimates.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it is important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentals. Suzuki further stated that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) moves. Key quotes“Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentals.”

“Important for government, BoJ to coordinate policy.”

“Will take thorough response for forex.”

“Closely watching FX moves.”Market reaction These comments have little to no market reaction to the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.06% higher on the day to trade at 156.31.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that Japan's commitment to allowing the Japanese Yen (JPY) to move flexibly would let the Bank of Japan (BoJ) focus on achieving price stability while warning against the call by certain experts to use monetary policy to limit the currency's depreciation, per Reuters.  Key quotes“Further hikes in Japan's short-term policy rate should proceed at a gradual pace and be data-dependent.”

"underscored that Japan's longstanding commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime will help absorb shocks and support monetary policy's focus on price stability.” 

“BOJ's state-contingent purchases of JGBs will help mitigate excessive shifts in yields that could undermine financial stability during policy transition.”

“Clear, effective communication strategy by BOJ that continues to underscore factors behind the pace of rate hike will be a key.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.08% higher on the day to trade at 156.32.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

USD/JPY extends its upside near 156.20 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Investors will monitor the US PPI figure on Tuesday, which is estimated to rise 2.2% YoY in April. The BoJ cut the amount of Japanese government bonds it offered to buy in a regular purchase operation.The USD/JPY pair extends the rally around 156.20 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) despite the hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to cut purchases of Japanese government bonds on Monday and the downbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April last week. 

Investors will take more cues from the key US economic data this week, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Retail Sales. These reports will offer some hints as to whether inflation remains stubborn, is receding somewhat, or is even perhaps increasing. The PPI figure, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, is due on Tuesday and is expected to rise 2.2% YoY in April. The core PPI, excluding energy and food costs, is projected to increase by 2.4% YoY in the same report period. Traders might use the PPI report to gauge the potential CPI outcome, and the hotter-than-expected data might continue to boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

On the JPY’s front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sent a hawkish signal on Monday by reducing the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) it offered to buy in a regular purchase operation. This move is expected to put upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and possibly narrow the gap between Japan and the United States, which has weakened the JPY. However, the recent move was muted and had little effect on the Yen. On the Japanese docket, the nation’s GDP growth number for Q1 2024 will be released on Thursday. The stronger reading might lift the JPY and cap the upside of the USD/JPY pair in the near term.  USD/JPY Overview Today last price 156.23 Today Daily Change 0.01 Today Daily Change % 0.01 Today daily open 156.22   Trends Daily SMA20 155.23 Daily SMA50 152.51 Daily SMA100 149.95 Daily SMA200 148.8   Levels Previous Daily High 156.25 Previous Daily Low 155.51 Previous Weekly High 155.95 Previous Weekly Low 152.8 Previous Monthly High 160.32 Previous Monthly Low 150.81 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 155.97 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 155.79 Daily Pivot Point S1 155.73 Daily Pivot Point S2 155.25 Daily Pivot Point S3 154.99 Daily Pivot Point R1 156.48 Daily Pivot Point R2 156.74 Daily Pivot Point R3 157.22    

Final Euro inflation figures to be overshadowed by US CPI inflation print.Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to speak on Tuesday.US consumer inflation expectations rose again, complicating the path to rate cuts.EUR/USD found slim upside on Monday, climbing from early bids near 1.0770 but bullish momentum remains limited with the pair struggling to break above the 1.0800 level. German final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures are due during the European market session, but the mid-tier final inflation print is unlikely to drive market volatility unless inflation numbers see late adjustments compared to the preliminary figures. European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter are slated for Wednesday, and markets are expected QoQ GDP growth to hold steady at 0.3%. US consumer inflation expectations rose in April according to a survey from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York. According to the NY Fed’s consumer sentiment survey, US consumers broadly expect inflation over the next year to accelerate to 3.3%. Consumer one-year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% in March. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation numbers are due during Tuesday’s US market session, where investors are expecting producer-level inflation in April to tick higher to 0.3% MoM compared to the previous month’s 0.2%. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD continues to trade into the high end after a bounce-and-run from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last week near 1.0730. Bullish potential remains capped by a near-term supply zone above the 1.0800 handle. Daily candlesticks show the EUR/USD trading into firm technical resistance at the 200-day EMA at 1.0789, a failed launch from bidders could see the pair falling back into the last swing low near 1.0600. A topside break from buyers will send the pair into immediate resistance from the last swing high just below 1.0900. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0791 Today Daily Change 0.0019 Today Daily Change % 0.18 Today daily open 1.0772   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0705 Daily SMA50 1.0789 Daily SMA100 1.083 Daily SMA200 1.0792   Levels Previous Daily High 1.079 Previous Daily Low 1.076 Previous Weekly High 1.0791 Previous Weekly Low 1.0724 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0772 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0779 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0758 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0744 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0728 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0788 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0804 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0818    

GBP/USD trades sideways around 1.2560 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Many Fed officials emphasized the need to hold interest rates at current levels until inflation returns to the target. Markets have priced in a 25 bps reduction in August and 50 bps in cuts overall in 2024.The GBP/USD pair consolidates its gains near 1.2560 on Tuesday during the early Asian session. The weaker US Dollar (USD) amidst the generalized better tone in the appetite for risk-related assets provides some support to the major pair. Investors will closely monitor the UK employment market, the speech by the BoE's  Pill, and US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due later on Tuesday. 

Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized the need to hold rates higher for longer as inflation remains elevated. Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson on Monday became the latest central bank official to call for holding interest rates at current levels until inflation shows more signs of easing. Jefferson said that he will continue to look for additional evidence that inflation is going to return to the 2% target. 

The financial markets have priced in nearly 5% odds of June rate cuts, down from 10%, while the chance of September rate cuts has fallen to 75% from nearly 90% at the start of last week. The cautious approach from Fed officials will likely lift the Greenback in the near term and cap the upside of the pair.  

On the other hand, there is growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin to cut the interest rate in the summer, with traders pricing in a 25 basis point (bps) reduction in August and 50 basis points (bps) in cuts overall in 2024. The BoE governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that he would monitor the forthcoming data releases before deciding on rate cuts. The UK employment data for April might offer some cues about the economic situation and further monetary policy. A higher-than-expected outcome might weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP) and create a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2558 Today Daily Change 0.0033 Today Daily Change % 0.26 Today daily open 1.2525   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2484 Daily SMA50 1.2599 Daily SMA100 1.2637 Daily SMA200 1.2543   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2541 Previous Daily Low 1.2503 Previous Weekly High 1.2594 Previous Weekly Low 1.2446 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2526 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2517 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2505 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2484 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2466 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2543 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2561 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2582    

New Zealand's Electronic Retail Sales contracted in April, falling -0.4%. The decline slowed the pace of contraction from the previous month's -0.7%, but the annualized figure decelerated further, falling -3.8% compared to the previous period's -2.3% (revised from -3.0%). Seasonally-adjusted retail card spending totals declined to their lowest levels since August of 2022, with durables goods spending falling the furthest, declining $11 million NZD. About New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales Electronic Card Retail Sales as reported by Statistics New Zealand, measures purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. The figure gives hint of strength in the retail sector and influences interest rate decisions. A high number is generally positive (bullish) for the New Zealand dollar, while a weak number is seen as negative (bearish)

New Zealand saw it's single-worst YoY net migration loss for the year ended in March, with New Zealand population outflows of 52,500 YoY.  New Zealand migrant departures outnumbered arrivals nearly three to one in the MArch 2024 year, with total population inflows of 25,800 compared to 78,200 outflows. Market reaction  NZD/USD continues to cycle familiar territory near the 0.6000 handle, with the pair stuck in the midrange heading into Tuesday's early Pacific market session.

GBP/JPY rose more than 0.50% on Monday amid safe-haven peers’ depreciation.The uptrend is set to continue above 196.00, with key resistance at 197.92 and above 200.00.The Pound Sterling climbed for the sixth consecutive day versus the Japanese Yen amid a risk-on impulse. Safe-haven currencies remained the laggards during the session as investors braced for the release of US inflation data. The GBP/JPY trades at 196.16, virtually unchanged. GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook The GBP/JPY has resumed its uptrend, breaching the first key resistance level seen at the Kijun-Sen at 195.26, which opened the door to reclaim 196.00. Worth noting that momentum favors a bullish continuation, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, if GBP/JPY edges toward the 197.00 psychological level and bears fail to step in, the next key resistance to emerge would be the April 26 high at 197.92. Once cleared, further upside is seen, with the year-to-date (YTD) up next at 200.59. The other scenario would be if the cross-pair tumbled below 196.00, exacerbating a dip below the Kijun-Sen seen at 195.26, as sellers would set their sights at the Senkou Span A at 194.54. Once cleared, the next stop would be the Senkou Span B at 194.24, followed by the Tenkan-Sen at 193.81. GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily ChartGBP/JPY Overview Today last price 196.17 Today Daily Change 1.07 Today Daily Change % 0.55 Today daily open 195.1   Trends Daily SMA20 193.67 Daily SMA50 191.97 Daily SMA100 189.28 Daily SMA200 186.52   Levels Previous Daily High 195.34 Previous Daily Low 194.48 Previous Weekly High 195.34 Previous Weekly Low 191.73 Previous Monthly High 200.59 Previous Monthly Low 190 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 195.01 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 194.81 Daily Pivot Point S1 194.61 Daily Pivot Point S2 194.12 Daily Pivot Point S3 193.76 Daily Pivot Point R1 195.47 Daily Pivot Point R2 195.83 Daily Pivot Point R3 196.32    

The daily RSI and MACD indicate diminishing buying momentum as bulls struggle to gain further ground.The hourly indicators reveal that sellers have a slight upper hand ahead of the Asian session.In Monday's session, the NZD/USD pair traded with mild losses, and sellers gained ground. As the pair is facing strong resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair struggles to consolidate advances. Indicators are flattening and indicate that the moment of the bulls may be coming to an end. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a flattening traction above 50. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reveals a decrease in buying momentum, demonstrated by diminishing green bars. NZD/USD daily chart The hourly RSI indicates a slightly negative trend with the latest reading falling towards its middlepoint, showing a slight dominance from the sellers in the market. This is supported by the MACD, which also prints decreasing green bars, further confirming the decrease in buying momentum at an intraday level. NZD/USD hourly chart Interpreting the broader perspective, the NZD/USD is positioned below the thresholds of its 100, 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Significant bearish momentum, implying a prevailing downward trend in both the medium and long term. However, if the buyers defend the 20-day SMA, they may still have some hope to make another stride to reclaim the 200-day SMA.4   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6017 Today Daily Change -0.0005 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 0.6022   Trends Daily SMA20 0.595 Daily SMA50 0.6011 Daily SMA100 0.6089 Daily SMA200 0.6038   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6041 Previous Daily Low 0.6009 Previous Weekly High 0.6041 Previous Weekly Low 0.598 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6021 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6029 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6007 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5992 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5975 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6039 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6056 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6071    

Crude Oil rebounded to kick off the new trading week.Despite recovery, topside momentum remains limited.Geopolitical tensions are mixing poorly with increasing risk of oversupply.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil recovered ground on Monday as energy traders stepped back into barrel bets on continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but steadily-rising US Crude Oil supplies are crimping upside potential in Crude Oil markets. A ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict is proving to be a difficult task to accomplish, and Israeli forces continue to push into Palestinian territory. Israel’s refusal to accept a ceasefire deal are putting a floor beneath Crude Oil prices as investors remain wary of a potential spillover into neighboring regions crucial to global Crude Oil supply. Despite renewed barrel buying on Monday, upside potential for Crude OIl remains limited as US production continues to outpace demand. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude Oil production in the Permian Basin is set to rise to its highest levels of barrel output since December of last year. Week-on-week barrel supply counts have steadily outrun forecasts as production overfills facilities, outrunning energy demand. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will be publishing their latest Weekly Crude Oil Stocks count on Tuesday, forecast to show a buildup of one million barrels through the week ended May 10. The EIA’s own Crude Oil Stocks Change, due on Wednesday, will be publishing on Wednesday. WTI technical outlook Despite Monday’s price recovery, WTI remains trapped in near-term technical levels as US Crude Oil trades on the high side of a supply zone between $78.00 and $77.00 per barrel. Bullish momentum is capped by the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.08. Daily candles remain hampered by the 200-day EMA at 79.25, and Crude Oil is struggling to develop bullish legs after falling from the last swing high above $86.00 per barrel. WTI hourly chart WTI daily chart WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 78.76 Today Daily Change 0.91 Today Daily Change % 1.17 Today daily open 77.85   Trends Daily SMA20 81.14 Daily SMA50 81.52 Daily SMA100 78.18 Daily SMA200 79.75   Levels Previous Daily High 79.56 Previous Daily Low 77.82 Previous Weekly High 79.56 Previous Weekly Low 76.71 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 78.48 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 78.89 Daily Pivot Point S1 77.26 Daily Pivot Point S2 76.67 Daily Pivot Point S3 75.52 Daily Pivot Point R1 79 Daily Pivot Point R2 80.15 Daily Pivot Point R3 80.75