Forex News Timeline

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar rises on hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA prolonging higher interest rates.Australia’s central bank is expected to maintain its current rate at 4.35% until the end of September.US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to print a reading of 243K for April, compared to 303K prior.The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak for the third successive session on Friday. The hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bolsters the strength of the Aussie Dollar, consequently, underpinning the AUD/USD pair. Australia’s central bank is expected to maintain its key policy rate at 4.35% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday, and likely until the end of September, as per a Reuters poll of economists. These economists predict only one interest rate cut this year. The higher-than-expected domestic inflation data released last week has raised expectations that the RBA may delay interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains under pressure following the dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell after Wednesday's decision to maintain interest rate range of 5.25%-5.50%. Powell's dismissal of the possibility of another rate hike has contributed to the USD's weakening. Market attention has now turned to the US employment data for April, scheduled for later on Friday, which includes Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and ISM Services PMI. These releases are expected to offer additional insights into the condition of the United States (US) economy. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates due to positive market sentiment The Judo Bank Australia Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 53.0 in April from the previous reading of 53.3. This indicates a slightly slower growth in Australian private sector output. The growth in business activity was mainly confined to the service sector while manufacturing output continued to decrease. Specifically, the Services PMI fell to 53.6 from 54.4 in the previous month. The ASX 200 Index saw gains for the second consecutive session on Friday, propelled by positive movements on Wall Street overnight. These gains were driven by reassurances from the US Federal Reserve, which dismissed concerns about another interest rate hike. US Initial Jobless Claims data reported that the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits remained unchanged from the previous week at 208K for the week ending April 26. This figure stays at the lowest level in two months and is notably below market expectations of 212K, potentially providing the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to postpone interest rate cuts. US Nonfarm Productivity rose by 0.3% in the first quarter, following an upwardly revised 3.5% increase in the previous quarter and falling short of the expected increase of 0.8%. It was the weakest pace of productivity increase since the January-March quarter in 2023. On Thursday, Australia's Trade Balance (MoM) data posted a surplus, however, it was lower than market expectations for April. Additionally, Building Permits data showed an increase in the number of permits for new construction projects in March, albeit falling short of expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that progress on inflation has recently stalled, suggesting that it would take more time than previously anticipated before the Fed could confidently expect inflation to approach its 2% target. Powell mentioned that if robust hiring persisted and inflation remained stagnant, it would justify delaying rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates within their current range of 5.25%-5.50% during the June meeting has decreased to 85.8%, down from 90.0% a week ago. Conversely, the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut has increased to 14.2% from 9.7% compared to a week ago. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar could test the psychological level of 0.6600 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6570 on Friday. The pair is positioned in a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50-level, indicating a bullish bias. The AUD/USD pair might test the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the upper boundary around the level of 0.6630. A breakthrough above this level could lead the pair to explore the region around March’s high of 0.6667. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could move toward the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6528, followed by the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around the psychological level of 0.6500. A break below the latter could exert pressure on the pair to test the throwback support at the 0.6480 level. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.03% -0.09% -0.02% -0.06% -0.06% -0.09% -0.04%EUR0.04%   -0.04% 0.02% -0.01% 0.02% -0.02% -0.01%GBP0.08% 0.05%   0.07% 0.03% 0.04% 0.01% 0.05%CAD0.02% -0.02% -0.07%   -0.03% -0.02% -0.05% -0.02%AUD0.06% 0.01% -0.04% 0.03%   0.02% -0.03% 0.02%JPY0.06% 0.00% -0.06% 0.00% 0.00%   0.00% -0.02%NZD0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.07% 0.03% 0.04%   0.05%CHF0.04% 0.01% -0.05% 0.01% -0.01% 0.01% -0.05%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee drifts higher on Friday amid the softer Greenback. The positive outlook in the Indian economy and capital inflows support the INR. Investors await the US ISM Services PMI and the employment data on Friday. Indian Rupee (INR) gains momentum on Friday as the cautious comments by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell exert further selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, the positive sentiment in the Indian equity markets and the inflow of foreign capital boost the INR and cap the pair’s upside. 

Market players will keep an eye on the US ISM Services PMI and the employment data for April, due on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)  is estimated to show 243K job additions in the US economy, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 3.8% in April. The unexpected weakening in the labor market could warrant a rate cut from the Fed, which weighs on the Greenback. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains strong amid the positive sentiment The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 58.8 in April from a 16-year high of 59.1 in March. FX intervention from the RBI in February was the lowest in six months, about one-eighth of the average monthly intervention from October to December, per Reuters.  QuantEco Research economist, Vivek Kumar, said that pressures on the Indian Rupee eased in the January-March compared to October-December, reducing the magnitude of intervention.  The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for India by 40 basis points (bps) to 6.6% for 2024-25.  The Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ended April 27 remained unchanged at 208K, better than the expectation of 212K.  The US Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and noted that it doesn’t plan to cut interest rates until it has “greater confidence” that price increases are easing sustainably to its 2% target. Technical analysis: USD/INR keeps the bullish outlook in the longer termThe Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The constructive stance of USD/INR remains unchanged on the daily timeframe as the pair is forming an ascending triangle and holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in the bullish territory around the 50 midline, indicating that further consolidation looks favorable for the time being. 

The confluence of the lower limit of the ascending triangle and the 100-day EMA at 83.15 act as an initial support level for USD/INR. A decisive break below this level will expose a low of January 15 at 82.78 and then pave the way to a low of March 11 at 82.65. On the upside, a high of May 1 at  83.50 will be the first upside target for the pair. A bullish breakout above the upper boundary of the ascending triangle of 83.71 will see a rally to the 84.00 psychological round mark.    Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
 


 


  US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.01% -0.08% -0.02% -0.03% 0.00% -0.05% -0.02%EUR0.02%   -0.05% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.00% -0.01%GBP0.07% 0.06%   0.06% 0.06% 0.09% 0.04% 0.05%CAD0.02% 0.00% -0.04%   0.00% 0.04% -0.01% 0.00%AUD0.03% 0.00% -0.05% 0.00%   0.04% -0.01% 0.00%JPY-0.01% -0.04% -0.10% -0.06% -0.02%   -0.03% -0.05%NZD0.04% 0.00% -0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.05%   0.02%CHF0.02% 0.01% -0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% -0.02%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues to draw support from speculated government intervention.The post-FOMC USD selling turns out to be another factor weighing on the USD/JPY pair.Investors now look forward to the crucial US NFP report for a fresh directional impetus.The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the third successive day on Friday, marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six, and climbs to a nearly three-week high during the Asian session. Speculations that Japan's financial authorities intervened again on Thursday, for the second time this week, with an intention to prop up the domestic currency, turn out to be a key factor lending support to the JPY. This, along with the post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) selling bias, is seen exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. That said, growing acceptance that the wide gap in interest rates between Japan and the United States (US) might cap gains for the JPY. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. Investors might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen benefits from the recent alleged intervention by authorities Bank of Japan data showed on Thursday that Japanese officials may have spent around ¥3.66 trillion on Wednesday to boost the domestic currency, lending support to the Japanese Yen.  Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, declined to directly confirm that intervention had occurred and said that the Ministry of Finance will disclose data at the end of this month. The Federal Reserve dismissed the prospects for any further interest rate hikes despite sticky inflation, which continues to weigh on the US Dollar and exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair.  Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged no intention to cut interest rates in the near term, citing the lack of progress in the fight to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.  In contrast, the BoJ has indicated that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for an extended period, which, in turn, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on the sidelines of the ADB meeting at 13:45 GMT, which should provide some impetus. Later, during the North American session, the release of the US jobs data, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, will influence the USD and determine the near-term trajectory for the USD/JPY pair. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY seems vulnerable to extend the slide towards testing the 152.00 confluence support  From a technical perspective, a break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April rally might have already set the stage for deeper losses. The outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction. This, in turn, suggests a subsequent fall toward testing the 152.00 confluence, comprising the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibo. level, looks like a distinct possibility. The said handle also marks a previous strong resistance breakpoint, but it has now turned support. Hence, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish trades and pave the way for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the all-time peak touched in April. On the flip side, any recovery back above the 153.00 mark now seems to confront some resistance near the 153.50 area ahead of the Asian session peak, around the 153.75 region. This is followed by the 154.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively, might trigger a short-covering rally. The subsequent move-up should allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark, with some intermediate resistance near the 154.45-154.50 zone. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY depreciated as JPY continued to gain ground amid possible market intervention by Japanese authorities.Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, Masato Kanda declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in the market.Australian Composite PMI declined in April, indicating a slower pace of growth in private sector output.AUD/JPY declined as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened on Friday, following a rally on Thursday attributed to potential Japanese government intervention, marking the second such incident this week, according to a Reuters report. Masato Kanda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in the market. It is worth noting that Japanese banks will be closed due to Greenery Day on Friday. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released Minutes from the March meeting with insights into the monetary policy outlook. One member noted that the economy's reaction to a short-term rate increase to approximately 0.1% is expected to be minimal. Additionally, several members expressed the opinion that market forces should primarily determine long-term rates. The Australian Dollar (AUD) may strengthen due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It is widely anticipated that the RBA will maintain its key policy rate at 4.35% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday, and likely until the end of September, according to a Reuters poll of economists. These economists forecast only one interest rate cut this year. This shift in expectations, from two 25 basis point cuts in an April survey, follows news that inflation declined less than expected in the last quarter and the labor market remains tight. Daily Digest Market Movers: AUD/JPY depreciates after softer Aussie PMI data The Judo Bank Australia Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 53.0 in April from 53.3 prior. The Australian private sector output grew slightly slower. Business activity growth was primarily limited to the service sector, as manufacturing output continued to decline. The Services PMI fell to 53.6 from 54.4 in the previous month. The ASX 200 Index advanced on Friday, marking its second consecutive session of gains. The rise followed positive movements on Wall Street overnight, driven by reassurances from the US Federal Reserve that dismissed concerns about another interest rate hike. On Thursday, Australia’s Trade Balance (MoM) showed a surplus but lower than the market expectations in April. Additionally, the Building Permits showed the number of permits for new construction projects rose but fell short of the expectations in March. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 38.3 in April from 39.5 in March and came below the market expectations of 39.7. This decline marks the lowest level in three months, reflecting weakened sentiment among households. According to Reuters, the Sankei newspaper reported on Tuesday that Japan is considering implementing tax breaks for repatriation of corporate profits into the Yen. This measure may potentially be included in the annual mid-year policy blueprint. Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY falls to near 100.50 aligned with channel’s lower boundary The AUD/JPY trades around 100.50 on Friday, testing to break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level. A further decline could commence the weakening of the bullish bias. A break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel could lead the AUD/JPY cross to navigate the region around the psychological level of 100.00. A further decline could strengthen the bearish bias and put pressure on the currency cross to reach April’s low at 97.78. The key resistance is observed at the lower boundary of the wedge around the psychological level of 103.80. A rebound back into the ascending wedge could potentially strengthen the bullish bias and push the AUD/JPY cross toward the psychological level of 105.00, followed by the upper boundary of the wedge. AUD/JPY: Daily ChartJapanese Yen price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.05% -0.13% -0.05% -0.12% -0.18% -0.16% -0.07%EUR0.07%   -0.05% 0.01% -0.05% -0.09% -0.06% -0.02%GBP0.12% 0.06%   0.08% 0.01% -0.06% -0.03% 0.05%CAD0.05% -0.02% -0.07%   -0.06% -0.11% -0.09% -0.02%AUD0.12% 0.04% -0.01% 0.06%   -0.05% -0.03% 0.04%JPY0.18% 0.08% 0.04% 0.10% 0.04%   0.05% 0.08%NZD0.14% 0.07% 0.03% 0.11% 0.04% -0.03%   0.08%CHF0.07% 0.02% -0.05% 0.02% -0.05% -0.09% -0.08%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

USD/CAD trades on a softer note around 1.3660 on Friday.The US Initial Jobless Claims remained steady at 208,000 last week. The BoC Governor said there’s a limit to how much Canadian monetary policy can diverge from the US. The USD/CAD pair extends its downside near 1.3660 amid the weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday during the Asian trading hours. The Greenback has edged lower since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell was less hawkish than many feared. The highlight will shift to the US April employment data, due later on Friday. 

The Fed kept monetary policy on hold on Wednesday but signaled that it would take longer to gain confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target. Powell said that it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike” and that the Fed would need additional data to decide on the rate cuts. Apart from this, the US central bank announced a slowing in its balance sheet runoff (QT).

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed that the Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ended April 27 remained unchanged at 208,000, better than the expectation of 212,000. 

On the Loonie front, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday that there’s a “limit” to how much Canadian monetary policy can diverge from the US, they’re not close to that limit. Financial markets expect the BoC to cut interest rates in June or July, as inflation has eased significantly in Canada. The divergence of US and Canadian interest rates could exert some selling pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the months to come and cap the downside of USD/CAD.  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.366 Today Daily Change -0.0014 Today Daily Change % -0.10 Today daily open 1.3674   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3702 Daily SMA50 1.3604 Daily SMA100 1.3507 Daily SMA200 1.3552   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3742 Previous Daily Low 1.367 Previous Weekly High 1.3753 Previous Weekly Low 1.3635 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3697 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3714 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3649 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3623 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3577 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3721 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3767 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3793    

WTI prices recover to $79.00, gaining 0.28% on Friday.A surprise build in US crude stocks exerts some selling pressure on black gold prices.WTI prices edge lower amid weaker global demand and easing Middle East geopolitical risks.Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.00 on Friday. The black gold rebounds modestly from a seven-week low. However, the upside might be limited due to rising crude inventories in the United States and fading hopes for rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). 

The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday amid stubborn inflation. The US central bank noted that it doesn’t plan to cut interest rates until it has “greater confidence” that price increases are easing sustainably to its 2% target, adding that it might take longer than previously expected. The higher-for-longer Fed stance could drag WTI prices lower, as it translates to less demand for oil as activity declines. 

On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that US crude inventories for the week ending April 26 increased by 7.256 million barrels from a 6.368 million barrel draw in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.3 million barrels. This figure registered the highest since June 2023, adding to concerns about a weakening oil demand.

Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza lead to narrow trading in crude oil prices. However, market players will monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical risks. Any rising tension might raise the fear of oil supply disruption in the region and boost the black gold price. 

  WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 78.96 Today Daily Change 0.13 Today Daily Change % 0.16 Today daily open 78.83   Trends Daily SMA20 83.25 Daily SMA50 81.45 Daily SMA100 77.87 Daily SMA200 79.83   Levels Previous Daily High 79.6 Previous Daily Low 78.15 Previous Weekly High 84.18 Previous Weekly Low 80.62 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 78.7 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 79.05 Daily Pivot Point S1 78.12 Daily Pivot Point S2 77.41 Daily Pivot Point S3 76.66 Daily Pivot Point R1 79.57 Daily Pivot Point R2 80.31 Daily Pivot Point R3 81.02    

NZD/USD gains ground around 0.5965 on softer USD in Friday’s early Asian session. There were 208,000 initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 27. RBNZ stated there’s a risk that renewed inflation pressures could keep global interest rates high for longer.The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 0.5965 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the further selling pressure of the US Dollar (USD). The releases of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for April will be in the spotlight later on Friday. 

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended April 27 held steady at a seasonally adjusted 208,000, better than the forecast of 212,000, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday.  

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) noted on Wednesday that inflation remained high in recent months and the Fed doesn’t plan to cut interest rates until it has “greater confidence” that price increases are easing sustainably to its 2% target. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell added that it “will take longer than previously expected. Investors now expect just one rate cut this year, in November, according to futures prices tracked by CME FedWatch. The delay rate cut prospect from the Fed provides some support to the USD and acts as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report on Wednesday that “global inflation is declining from elevated levels and financial markets have priced in lower policy rates over the next year.” Nonetheless, there is a risk that fresh or persistent inflationary pressures could cause global interest rates to stay restrictive for longer. The New Zealand central bank indicated that it doesn’t plan to pivot to monetary easing until 2025, as inflation pressures were higher than expected in the first quarter. This, in turn, continues to support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the time being.  NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5962 Today Daily Change 0.0032 Today Daily Change % 0.54 Today daily open 0.593   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5952 Daily SMA50 0.6031 Daily SMA100 0.6106 Daily SMA200 0.6043   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5941 Previous Daily Low 0.5875 Previous Weekly High 0.597 Previous Weekly Low 0.5886 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5916 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.59 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5889 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5849 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5823 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5956 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5981 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6022    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and  Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, said on Friday that the central bank will probably lower borrowing costs three times this year instead of four, according to Bloomberg. Key quotes“We now consider three rate cuts in 2024 as the more likely scenario.”

“If this pace of economic growth continues, then consumer-price growth is likely to be marginally higher than our March forecast, but without jeopardizing the 2% target in mid-2025,” 

“The most recent euro-zone GDP figures were a positive surprise.”Market reaction These comments have little to no market reaction to the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0730, adding 0.04% on the day. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

Australia's Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slipped back in April, printing at 53.6 compared to the previous month's 54.4. New Services business increased at its fastest pace since May 2022 on the back of higher demand. The overall index performance took a hit as business charges eased at an increasing pace despite a faster rate of input cost increases. According to Matthew De Pasquale, Economist at Judo Bank: “The Australian Composite PMI for April confirms earlier 'Flash' PMI findings of an ongoing rebound in activity levels, continued employment growth, and improved business confidence." De Pasquale continued, "The services sector is driving the improvement in economic activity levels. Both the business activity and new order indexes have consistently remained in expansion territory over the past three months. The New Business Index posted the highest reading since May 2022. While these figures suggest an improvement in consumption levels through 2024, official retail sales figures are yet to show clear signs of improvement, remaining tepid." About Judo Bank Australian Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD.

GBP/USD holds positive ground near 1.2540 on the weaker USD on Friday. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday.  The BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged for the sixth time in a row at its meeting next week. The GBP/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.2540 amid the softer US Dollar (USD) on Friday during the early Asian session. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell delivered a modest dovish message after the meeting on Wednesday, which weighs on the Greenback. However, the ongoing backdrop of elevated inflation and robust growth in the US should keep the Fed on hold and maintain the higher-for-longer narrative, which might support the USD. Later in the day, the US S&P Global Services PMI will be due, along with the US employment data for April. 

The Fed decided to leave its key interest rate steady at the highest level in more than two decades, in the range of 5.25%–5.5%, where it has stood since last July. The US central bank acknowledged the worsening inflation outlook, citing that there has been a lack of further progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target in recent months.

Fed’s Powell emphasized that it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike, adding that rate cut timing will depend on the data and that the unexpected weakening in the labor market could warrant a cut. Investors will closely monitor the US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. In the case of weaker-than-expected data,  this could exert further selling pressure on the USD and create a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its interest rate decision next week. The BoE is anticipated to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row, while the markets have fully priced in the first rate cut in September. Market players will take more cues from the inflation outlook and cues about when the BoE will start cutting interest rates. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2539 Today Daily Change 0.0013 Today Daily Change % 0.10 Today daily open 1.2526   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2507 Daily SMA50 1.2618 Daily SMA100 1.2648 Daily SMA200 1.2551   Levels Previous Daily High 1.255 Previous Daily Low 1.2466 Previous Weekly High 1.2542 Previous Weekly Low 1.23 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2498 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2479 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2431 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2395 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2562 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2598 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2646    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar appreciates against USD, driven by positive sentiment and strong US economic data.US Dollar Index falls 0.27% after Fed keeps rates steady and signals slower Quantitative Tightening.Chair Powell stresses data-dependent policy amid slow inflation progress.Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI disappoints investors, coming at 53.6, down from 54.2, missing estimates.AUD/USD traders await US labor data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rates.The Australian Dollar registered solid gains of 0.65% against the US Dollar on Thursday, courtesy of an upbeat market mood amid solid economic data from the United States (US). However, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision is still weighing on the Greenback, which finished the session losing 0.27%, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The AUD/USD trades at 0.6567, up by a minuscule 0.03%. AUD/USD slightly up as traders digest Federal Reserve decision and Powell comments On Wednesday, the Fed decided to hold rates unchanged and opened the door to reducing the Quantitative Tightening (QT) pace. Additionally, the Fed Chair said that it’s not appropriate to reduce interest rates as inflation progresses stalled. He emphasized the data-dependent stance, saying they would decide monetary policy “meeting by meeting.” Data-wise, the US Balance of Trade reported the deficit narrowed -0.1% from $-69.5 billion to $-69.4 billion, falling shy of the expected $-69.1 billion. Other data showed that Factory orders improved from 1.2% to 1.6% MoM in March as projected, while Americans filling for unemployment benefits for the last week rose by 208K, less than the 21K expected, unchanged from the previous reading. In the meantime, AUD/USD traders are looking for the release of the Judo Bank Services PMI Final reading for April, which is expected to drop from 54.4 to 54.2. On the US front, April’s US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 240K vs. 303K in March. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to stay at 3.8%, while Average Hourly Earnings would likely remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The AUD/USD daily chart suggests the pair is neutrally biased, as price action meanders around flat 50, 200, and 100-day moving averages (DMAs). However, if buyers lift the pair above the 100-DMA at 0.6580, it will clear the path toward 0.6600. Further upside is seen once broken, with the next supply zone seen at March 8 high at 0.6667. Conversely, a drop below the confluence of the 200 and 50-DMAs at around 0.6520 could pave the way to challenge the current week's low of 0.6465.Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

EUR/USD rebounds into high side of near-term range.US NFP labor figures to be pivotal data point this week.Investors looking for easing labor and slowing wages to bolster rate cut chances.EUR/USD drove back to the top end of recent consolidation on Thursday, recovering chart territory north of the 1.0700 handle as market risk appetite regains balance heading into another US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Friday. European economic data is sparse on Friday, leaving investors to focus on US labor figures due early in the American market session. US NFP labor data is expected to show 243K net job additions in the month of April, down slightly from the previous 12-month peak of 303K. With market bets of when and how often the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will finally cut interest rates, investors are hoping for an easing in the pace of hiring to signal a downturn in the US economy which continues to chug along at a breakneck pace compared to most of the developed world. US Average Hourly Earnings in April are also forecast to hold steady at 0.3% MoM, with wage growth a key fear point for inflationary pressures. At current cut, the rate markets are expecting a first quarter-point trim from the Fed in September, with 62% odds of at least a 25 basis point reduction according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD is back into the top side of recent consolidation, testing into the bottom end of a supply zone between 1.0750 and 1.0720. Price action has been cycling the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as markets await a direct driver to influence directional bias. Daily candlesticks have baked in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, adding weight to bearish momentum as the pair struggles to develop topside movement from the last swing low into 1.0600. EUR/USD is still trading on the bearish side of the 200-day EMA at 1.0971, and the pair is down 3.7% from the last major swing high into 1.1140 at the tail end of December. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart